λ流域无的资料地区降雨径流模拟的应用的研究.docVIP

λ流域无的资料地区降雨径流模拟的应用的研究 　　摘要：应用区域化流量历时曲线模拟无资料地区径流过程时，模拟精度常受到有资料地区径流资料长短、回归因素及推求的流量历时曲线片段长短等因素的影响。采用中周期连续时段径流资料，通过流量历时分位数回归法推求无资料地区流量历时曲线，并以此率定水文模型参数，进而实现?λ?流域无资料地区降雨径流过程模拟。模拟结果表明：综合考虑多种回归因素有利于提高流量历时曲线精度;采用流量历时曲线片段也可实现模型参数率定，且随着片段延长，率定精度也相应增加;在流量历时曲线高、中、低水三类片段中，采用中水片段率定的精度相对高于仅用高水或低水片段，因此率定过程中应尽可能保留流量历时曲线中水部分片段。 　　关键词：流量历时曲线;无资料;降雨径流模拟;流量历时分位数回归;参数率定 　　中图分类号：P333.2文献标志码：A文章编号： 　2015 　　Application research of rainfallrunoff simulation for ungauged region in the Mishui Basin 　　YANG Xuejun1，YANG Bang1，MENG Xianmeng2，LIU Yujing1 　　（1.Hydrology Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission，MWR，Tianjin 300170，China; 　　2.School of Environmental Studies，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan 430074，China） 　　Abstract：The precision of the application of regional flow duration curve to simulate the flow hydrograph in the ungauged regions is usually influenced by the length of runoff data in the gauged regions，the regression factors，and the segment length of calculated flow duration curve.In this paper，based on the continuous runoff data in the middle cycle，the flow duration quantile regression method was used to derive the flow duration curves in the ungauged regions.The parameters of hydrological model were calibrated，and the rainfallrunoff simulation for the ungauged regions in the Mishui Basin was performed.The simulation results showed that the comprehensive consideration of the multiple regression factors can improve the precision of flow duration curve;the flow duration curve segment can be used to calibrate the model parameters，and the calibration accuracy is increased with the segment extension;and among the three segments with high，middle，and low water of the flow duration curve，the calibration accuracy using the middle water segment is relatively higher than that using the high water or low water segment，so the middle water segment in the flow duration curve is better retained during the calibration process. 　　Key words：flow duration cu