旅顺乡镇预报气温订正的方法及温度特征分析.docVIP

旅顺乡镇预报气温订正的方法及温度特征分析 　　摘要 阐述了旅顺口区北海、铁山、水师营3个站的最低温度、最高温度相较于旅顺站的差异特征，提出了3个站的温度修正度数，介绍了3个街道温度变化气候因素。结果表明，乡镇自动气象站与旅顺站之间的最低温度、最高温度有明显差异，全年各乡镇的最高温度均比旅顺站偏高，而最低温度均低于旅顺站，而且这种差异随着季节的变化而不同。部分乡镇观测环境不标准，温度变化起伏较大，可能是造成乡镇预报准确率偏低的原因之一。随着观测环境的改善和旅顺站温度预报质量的提高，利用该方法制作的乡镇温度预报准确率也将随之提高。 　　关键词 乡镇气温预报；订正方法；温度特征；辽宁大连；旅顺口区 　　中图分类号 P457.3 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2018）01-0205-02 　　Forecast Temperature Correction Method and Temperature Characteristics Analysis in Lvshun Township 　　LI Qian 1 WANG Hong-xiang 2 WANG Si-hai 1 YANG Bo 1 BIAN Ruo-bin 1 　　（1 Meteorological Bureau of Lvshunkou District，Dalian City，Liaoning Province，Dalian Liaoning 116041； 2 Dalian Meteorological Information Center） 　　Abstract The differences between the minimum，maximum temperature of 3 stations in Beihai，Tieshan and Shuishiying of Lvshunkou District and Lvshun Station were described.The temperature correction degree of 3 stations was presented，and the climate change factors of 3 streets were introduced.The results showed that there was an obvious difference between the minimum temperature，the maximum temperature between the township automatic weather stations and Lvshun Station，the maximum temperature of all townships and towns in this year was higher than that of Lvshun Station，and the minimum temperatures was lower than that of Lvshun Station，which varied with the season.Observational environment of part townchip was not standard and the temperature fluctuation was larger，might be one of the reasons causing the low forecast accuracy of the township.With the improvement of the observation environment and the temperature forecast quality of Lvshun Station，the accuracy of forecasting the temperature of villages and towns made by this method will also increase. 　　Key words township temperature forecast；correction method；temperature characteristics；Liaoning Dalian；Lvshunkou District 　　?所周知，日最低温度和最高温度预报是最基本的天气预报要素之一，随着经济社会的发展，人们对天气预报的精细化要求越来越高，精细化到乡镇的最低、最高温度预报被提上日程，这也是上级对县站业务考核的最重要的指标。近年来，大量乡镇自动观测站的安装使用，为开展精细化到乡镇