从消费需求角度解读我国货币流动性过剩问题-数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

摘要 近年来，“流动性过剩”成为中国经济讨论中出现的最为频繁的关键词之一，引起了全社 会的广泛关注和研究。央行也频繁运用上调法定存款准备金率、加息、公开市场操作等多种 方式回收流动性，治理我国流动性过剩问题。然而时至今日，该问题依然突出，并且对经济 生活产生了一系列负面影响，解决流动性过剩的问题已成当务之急。只有从根本上解决流动 性过剩问题，才能消除宏观经济过热的风险，从而确保国民经济又快又好地发展。 本文首先介绍我国货币流动性过剩的概况，通过对其现状和造成的负面影响的描述，突 出解决流动性过剩问题的必要性和紧迫性；然后采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法，分 析了由消费需求不足导致的高储蓄率对我国流动性过剩的影响。 实证分析的过程中采用广义货币供应量与国内生产总值之比作为衡量流动性过剩的指 标，用居民储蓄率来衡量我国的消费需求，通过进行协整检验，得出我国货币流动性过剩同 城镇居民储蓄率存在正向的长期均衡关系的结论；进一步建立误差修正模型，发现农村居民 储蓄率和外汇储备增长率不同程度地影响其短期动态调整过程，并且受制度变迁的影响，不 同的历史阶段反映出不同程度的影响关系。 最后针对如何扩大消费，降低储蓄率以解决我国的货币流动性过剩问题，提出了提高居 民收入、完善社会保障制度、启动农村消费市场、发展消费信贷等政策建议。 【关键词】货币流动性过剩 消费需求不足 居民储蓄率 协整 误差修正模型 III Abstract In recent years, “Excess Liquidity” has become the most frequent one of the key words in the Chinese economy discussion, the problem of excess liquidity had aroused wide attention and research. The central bank also used up-regulating statutory deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rate, open market operation and other multiple methods to recover liquidity, in order to governance the problem of excess liquidity in China. However, as of today, the issue is still outstanding, and has produced a series of negative effects to the economy and domestic living, solve the problem of excess liquidity has become an urgent task. Only solve the excess liquidity from fundamental, we can eliminate the risk of macroeconomic overheating, so as to ensure the rapid and healthy development of nation economy. In this paper, firstly introduced currency liquidity surplus overview in China, through described its current situation and negative effect to economy, outstand the necessity and urgency of solving the problem of excess liquidity. Then analyzed China’s high saving rate, which result in the consumption demand insufficient, how to impact the problem of excess liquidity in China using theoretical and e mpirical analysis method. In the empirical analysis process, using the ratio of generalized monetary supply quantity to Gross Domestic Product to measure the “