城市房地产市场预警系统研究与实证分析-人文地理学专业论文.docxVIP

城市房地产市场预警系统研究与实证分析 人文地理学专业 研究生司马静指导教师王玉贵 摘要 z 在中国，房地产行业已经在国民经济中扮演者越来越重要的角色。 现在房地产行业在人民和政府中都有着很大的关注度。政府不断出台一系列措 施来调控房地产行业不合理的发展状况。本文以房地产周期理论为基础进行研 究，主要介绍了建立房地产经济预警体系的方法和此方法在郑州市的实证分 析。本文利用因子分析的方法来确定预警指标和它的权重值。在警度划分阶段， 本文采用综合评分法和物元分析法来解决其中的问题。之后通过 GM (1，1)的 方法对房地产系统进行了预测分析。使用以上建立预警系统的方法，本文对郑 州市房地产进行了预警分析。证明本文选用的这种预警方法可用性强，有使用 价值。 关键词:预警系统房地严郑州市 .、 Abstract The real estate industry of China plays a very important role in the economics. The people and the government pay special attention to the real estate now . The government exercised a series of policies to control the unreasonable development in the real estate industry of China. This article is based on the current methodologies of ear l，y-warning system of real estate. This article mainly introduced the methods that how to establish the real estate early-warning system. The article used the methods to analyze the real estate of Zhengzhou city. lndex smooth method used to analyze that the forecast different early-warning index. The article choose that index method and matter element analysis at the index early-warning critical point setting step .The pre哺arming of the real estate is made by the GM (1， 1) in this article .The article analyzed the early-warning system of real estate in Zhengzhou ，by the method up on. It proved that the the early-warning system of real estate is valuable and strong effectiveness . Keywords: early-warning system ，real es阳.te ，hleng址lOU city 目崇 第一1靠挺绪论……....川.....…川.....川.川川.阳….. 1.1 选跑背景及研究激义川………………川……..川…川….川.....…….…...川….....……川….…川..…川……..川..川....川…..…川….……...…....……....……....….… 1 1.1.1 选随背肇………..…….....…川……......…....………..川…...…川…….….……..…..川….…..…..川…..川.....….....川……..川….....…....川…川… ..…….…川…………....…川…..….....… 1. 1.2 圈内房地严行业的提展 …川……………川.….…...………………………....……川……......…...……川….川.…. 1.1.3 研究意义…..川…. 1.2 国内夕外+对房地产预警机制研究的状况…..………....…....……..………..…………..…川….…..…....… …川….33 1.2. 1 固外研究镶边...............