房地产开发风险研究-结构工程专业论文.docx

摘 要 开发项目工程量巨大、建设周期长、资金需求量大、涉及面广的特点使房地产开发具 有很大风险，加之市场变化快、不可预见因素多，以及国外房地产开发公司的加入等，使 国内房地产开发单位面临更大的挑战。风险管理理论在房地产开发过程中的应用，在降低 开发项目风险方面取得了很大成效，但由于两者结合的时间比较短暂，确有待进一步完善。 本文首先对房地产开发全过程进行分析，总结出房地产开发各个阶段包括融资风险、 项目质量风险和空置风险在内的 30 项可能遇到的主要风险，建立房地产开发风险系统图， 并对其成因、特点及危害进行了论述。然后，以风险管理工作程序为主线，针对房地产开 发各个阶段可能出现的风险，进行预测、识别、分析、评价、给出风险对策、决策，并进 行风险控制，建立房地产开发风险识别与控制机制。第三，以沈阳市某开发项目为例，对 该项目出现的七项主要风险采用风险管理的方法进行定量的阐述，并作为房地产开发风险 管理风险库的案例之一。最后，围绕降低房地产开发风险，就房地产开发外部条件的创新 给出综合对策建议。本文虽然把房地产开发和风险管理有机结合起来，但是，距离建立一 套通用的房地产开发全过程风险识别标准和形成房地产开发风险库这两个目标还需要时 间和积累。 本文采用系统归纳的方法，首先分别对房地产开发和风险管理进行论述，并将两者有 机结合后，给出实际案例加以证明，最后得出结论。在文中采用了大量的数据、图表、公 式，使本文更有说服性；类比方法的运用使得风险管理方法的最终采用也更为简单化。 本文的研究，旨在为降低房地产开发各个阶段风险提供不同的、合理的、经济的方法， 并通过对诸多相似、相近案例的归纳与整理，能够为将来形成可行的标准和系统的风险控 制专家库尽自己一点绵薄之力。 关键词：房地产开发，风险管理，可持续发展，系统工程。 Abstract The real estate development have so many big risk because of the development item’s characteristic s, such as the volume of project is huge, construction cycle is long, fund demanded is large, involve aspect is wide. In addition to the market changes quickly, the factor that can’t be foresaw are too much, as well as the overseas real estate development companys involved, and so on, all these make the native real estate development unit face with larger challenge. The risk management theory was used in the real estate and has obtained very big effect in reducing the development item risk, but because the time was quite short, they firmly needed further consummates. This article first analysis the entire process of the real estate, summarize 30 items risk which are possible occured at each stage of the real estate development, includes the financing risk, the item quality risk and the vacant risk, establish the real estate development risk system, and discuss its origin, characteristic and harm. Then, taking the risk management work procedure as the master line, in view of the real estate possibly risk at each stage, carries on the forecast, the recognition, the analysis, the appraisal, produces the risk c