华北夏季旱涝时空分布特征及环流剖析.docVIP

华北夏季旱涝时空分布特征及环流剖析 　　摘要 为分析华北基本气候概况，首先统计1951―2013年夏季6―8月以及3个月平均降水情况，然后分析3个月降水区域距平，并进行夏季平均降水时空分析及500、700、850 hPa的环流分析。结果表明，华北夏季各月降水递减，转变发生在20世纪80年代。时空分析中，距平场的前3个特征量的累积解释方差达到54%，也出现类似于区域距平分析结果，即华北的确在变干旱。不同高度的旱涝环流分析表明，对华北降水影响较大的是副高，其位置的异常使华北降水变化很大，引起旱涝变化。 　　关键词 夏季降水；旱涝变化；时空分布；环流分析；华北地区 　　中图分类号 P434 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2017）24-0181-05 　　Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Circulation Analysis of Drought and Flood in 　　Northern China in Summer 　　YANG Shuai ZHOU Peng SHAN Kun 　　（Langfang Meteorological Bureau in Hebei Province，Langfang Hebei 065000） 　　Abstract In order to analyze the basic climate profile in northern China，the average precipitations of June，July，August and the three months during 1951-2013 were counted，and then the precipitation anomalies of the three months were analyzed.The temporal and spatial analysis of summer precipitation and the circulation analysis of 500 hPa，700 hPa and 850 hPa were conducted.The results showed that in anomaly analysis，the precipitation in the summer of northern China was decreasing，and the change occurred in the 1980s. In the spatiotemporal analysis，the cumulative explanatory variance of the first three feature quantities of the anomalies was 54%，and the results were similar to the regional anomalies，which indicated northern China was getting drought. The analysis of diastolic and diversion of different heights showed that subtropical high had a great effect on the precipitation in northern China. The abnormal position of the subtropical high affected the great change of precipitation in northern China，causing the drought and flood changed. 　　Key words summer precipitation；drought and flood change；temporal and spatial distribution；circulation analysis；northern China 　　?A北夏季旱涝变化对工农业产生很大影响，如果一年中高强度旱涝的日数多，在这一年就容易出现旱灾、水灾等灾害以及其他的次生灾害。夏季降水是华北旱涝发生的主要影响因素，20世纪60年代中期以后，华北夏季降水呈现减少趋势，特别是70年代以来华北变旱趋势更加明显。赵声蓉等[1]利用1980―1994年NCEP逐月的再分析资料（高度场）及160个站的降水量资料，采用奇异值分解方法研究华北汛期降水的多寡与500、200 hPa欧亚大陆中高纬地区大气环流异常的可能联系。郝立生等