甘肃酒泉近50a气候生产潜力变化剖析.docVIP

甘肃酒泉近50a气候生产潜力变化剖析 　　摘 要：该文利用酒泉市8个气象台站1961-2010年4～9月份50a的气象资料，分析气候生产潜力表明：酒泉市近50a平均气温持续显著升高，倾向率是0.325℃/10a，在1997年前后发生突变，呈大幅度上升趋势；降水量呈波动变化有减少趋势但不显著；气候生产潜力越大的地区，变率越小，气候生产潜力越小的地区，变率越大，气候生产潜力在戈壁沙漠东多西少，瓜洲―敦煌一带明显减少，严重的限制了酒泉的农、牧业发展 ；气侯变暖与气候变湿均有利于区域农业生产潜力的提升，但降水条件变化对作物气候生产潜力的影响比较复杂。一般来说，降水条件差的地区，降水量增加，作物气候生产潜力提高，降水对气候生产潜力产生同步效应的几率高。因此，酒泉干旱地区水资源和气候生产潜力的研究对当地农业，尤其是牧业和生态环境发展是很有必要的。 　　关键词：酒泉市；气候生产潜力；分析 　　中图分类号 S162 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-7731（2016）01-89-03 　　Analysis of Climatic Potential Productivity Changes in Gansu Jiuquan in Recent 50 years 　　Cao Hua et al. 　　（Jiuquan Meteorological Administration，Jiuquan 735000，China） 　　Abstract：In this paper，the author used the meteorological data collected by eight meteorological offices and stations of Jiuquan city from 1961 to 2010 to calculate the climate productive potential by using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and to analyze its temporal variation characteristics by using EOF empirical orthogonal function and the method of mathematical statistics. The analysis showed that in the past 50 years，the average temperatures of Jiuquan city continued to increase significantly and the trend rate is 0.325℃×10a-1. Its mutations happened in around 1997，which showed a trend of rise. The precipitation showed fluctuations and a trend of reducing but not significantly. when the climate productive potential is greater，the variability of the region is smaller；the smaller the climate productive potential of the region，the greater the variability. In the gobi desert ，the climate production potential was more in the east and little in the west. In Guazhou and Dunhuang area it reduced significantly，which seriously limited the farming and animal husbandry development of Jiuquan. Climate warming and wetting are good for improving regional agricultural production potential，but the impact of the changes of precipitation conditions on crop production potential climate is more complex. In general，in poor rainfall condition area，when precipitation increas