粗糙集理论和Flex技术在中长期径流预报中的应用-系统分析与集成专业论文.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Flex 技术将数据与界面组件紧密联系起来，并采用异步方式与服务器进行通信，在 数据传输过程中用户不需要中断操作来等待数据刷新。 4）在中长期径流预报系统的服务器端使用 JNI 技术调用预报算法动态链接库文 件。预报算法库文件是已有的旧模块，采用 C++语言编写，这在一定程度上弥补了 Java 语言在程序运行性能上的不足，提高了算法的运算速度，而且使用动态链接库 封装算法，也在很大程度上保护了预报算法的知识产权，这样在保证系统功能实现 的基础上，缩短了开发周期，降低了开发成本，保护了历史投资。 关键词：中长期径流预报，粗糙集，Flex，支持向量回归 PAGE IV PAGE IV Abstract Water resource is essential for human being and the society’s sustainable development. The mid-long term runoff forecasting is important for the protection, exploitation, management of water resource, it uses mathematical models to forecast runoff, and the forecast period preponderats over the maximum concentration time of the watershed. Its result provids an important basis for the mid-long term operation of water resource, and is widely used in the fields of reservoir operation, hydropower scheduling, flood control and drought combat, allocation of water resource, shipping management. However, due to the long forecast period, and the complexity of the formation mechanism of runoff, coupled with the impact of human production activities, the accuracy of the mid-long term runoff forecasting is not high. This paper introduces the rough set theory to the mid-long term runoff forecasting, selects the most influential fators from the historical runoff data, excludes secondary factors, then uses support vector regression model to predict runoff based on the core factor set. By using Flex, it designs and develops a mid-long term runoff forecasting system, which has the strong mutual ability and the rich rendering ability, and the system can support the optimal scheduling of hydropower. The main works and research achievements are as follows: 1）The rough set theory is proposed for the study of the mid-long term runoff forecasting. The paper introduces its modeling and application with the yearly runoff data of the Yamadu station on Yili river in Xinjiang. It uses an algorithm based on the class-information entropy for the discretization of