担保机构风险管理的财务预警问题研究-会计学专业论文.docx

信用 信用担保机构风险管理的财务预警问题研究 PAGE PAGE 5 摘要 随着国家中小企业扶持政策的贯彻执行，我国的信用担保机构迅速兴起， 并发展成为一个行业。信用担保是国际上公认的高风险行业。目前担保行业的主 要客户是以民营企业为主的中小企业，由于其抗风险性较弱，担保行业在我国又 尚属新生事物，面临的风险也日益复杂，如何对日益复杂的风险进行良好的管理 和控制是我国信用担保机构进一步发展面临的重大问题，其中信用担保风险管理 与控制是最为核心的问题，而担保机构风险的预警又是风险管理中最薄弱环节。 本文试图通过在担保机构建立风险预警系统，给担保机构的决策层提供一个风险 管理的手段和工具，以提高担保公司风险控制能力。 本文对信用担保机构风险管理中的预警从担保机构整体和担保企业两个方 面进行财务指标分析和预警。根据担保项目的特点建立了基于现金流的短期担保 项目预警体系和基于企业生命周期成长阶段的长期担保项目风险预警体系；在分 析研究担保机构风险预警指标的基础上，综合设计了分层次的担保机构风险预警 指标框架结构，研究了确定有关预警指标的计算模型、步骤 和方法。 关键词:担保机构，风险管理，预警系统。 Abstract As Chinese government carries on the policy to promote the development of Small-Medium Enterprises (SMES), Guarantee Organization for SMEs are established nationwide and a newly-born industry has come into being. Guarantee industry are think as a high risk industry in the international trade. The customer for the industry main part at present is the medium-sized and small enterprises giving first place to non- governmentally operated enterprise , the risk is weaker since the person resists , Guarantee industry still belongs to new emerging things in our country, the risk being confronted with is also gradually complicated , how to carry out fine administration on gradually complicated risk and control the major issue being that our country credit guarantees that organization develops a frontage further, credit among them goes bail for the risk management and controlling the problem being to be core most, but going bail for organization risk early warning is a risk management. The article analyses the risk from SME and Guarantee organization, according to short period having built owing to cash stream in the difference guaranteeing the project time limit length and their important degree ought to show solicitude for a factor to paying back debt, goes bail for project risk early warning system. stage long range going bail for project early warning system and growing up owing to enterprise life cycle ;On the base of reasearching the finance index of Guaran