公共项目工期风险评价与应对研究-工程经济与管理专业论文.docx

西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 公共项目工期风险评价与应对研究 专 业：工程经济与管理 硕 士 生：周 琰 指导教师：罗福周 教授 摘 要 公共项目对国民经济和社会发展具有较大的影响，但建设工期长、施工环境 复杂等问题往往导致项目延期乃至失败。因此，对于公共项目工期风险的研究是 十分必要的。 本文在对公共项目工期风险进行分类的基础上，针对不同形成机理的工期风 险进行研究。对于直接性工期风险，通过风险识别和分析，构建工期风险评价指 标体系，采用综合赋权法进行排序，根据排序所得结果提出相应的应对措施；对 于传递性工期风险，在利用投入产出法得出各风险主体的风险产出水平后，从政 府的角度出发，构建了风险转移成本最小的，以项目各利益主体的风险产出水平 以及抗风险能力为约束的线性规划模型，防止各利益相关者无限制的向政府转移 风险，达到工期风险管理的最优效果；最后结合西安北站进行实证研究，验证模 型的有效性。 关键词：公共项目；工期风险；风险评价；风险分配 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 The Research on Public Project Duration Risk Assessment and Strategies Major:Engineering Economy and Management Postgraduate:Zhou Yan Instructor:Professor Luo Fuzhou ABSTRACT Public project has great influence on the national economic and social development. But the long construction period, complex construction environment often leads to the delay of project. Therefore, study the method to prevent public project duration risk become the research focus. In this paper, on the basis of classifying duration risk, study on different formation mechanism of public project duration risk.For Immediacy Duration risk,construction Immediacy Duration risk evaluation index system by the identification and detail analysis.The Index weight is obtained by using the comprehensive method, to get the weight of each factor, according to the result of sorting, formulate corresponding management measures; For transitive duration risk,using the input-output method to get the level of the stakeholders risk output.In the view of the government,to prevent stakeholders unlimited risk transfer to the government.Taking into account the ability to resist risks, set a reasonable risk transfer costs.then the stakeholders to measure exposures or transfer strategies.Modeling can prevent various stakeholders unrestricted transfer of risk to the government, to achieve the optimal effect of risk management.Finally, Xian North Railway Station instance,the different formation mechanisms of the duration risk were ana