道路客运公交化运营客流量预测与时刻表编制-交通运输工程专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 iii 摘 要 随着我国城市化进程和区域经济一体化的加快，人们间的交流日趋密切，对出行 工具数量和质量方面的需求逐渐提高，自2004年以来全国各地不断地对道路客运进行 公交化改造。然而，道路客运班线公交化改造中，运营企业对改造后线路的客流量缺 少分析预测，时刻表的编制不够合理，导致运力不足、乘客等待时间长等一系列问题 的出现。因此，研究道路客运公交化改造后线路的客流量预测及科学、合理的编制时 刻表具有重要的理论和实际意义。 在对道路客运发展历程、发展现状及发展趋势的基础上，分析公交化运营的优势、 前提条件以及存在的问题。从道路客运公交化运营后客流的增加量入手，将增加量分 为趋势客流量和诱发客流量两类，再针对它们各自的特点分别选择GM（1，1）预测模 型与重力模型对客流量进行预测。用预测得到的增长率，对调查的断面客流量进行处 理得到预测断面客流量，进而对时刻表进行编制。 关键词：道路客运，公交化运营，客流量预测，时刻表 iv Abstract With the acceleration of urbanization and regional economic integration, the communication between people is becoming increasingly close, the requirements for quantity and quality of travel tools is gradually improving. All over the country has continuously reformed the road passenger transportation for public transportation since 2004.However, the enterprise lacks the analysis and prediction for passenger flow volume after the reform in the reform of road passenger transportation lines, besides, the establishment of schedules is not reasonable, which leads to a series of problems such as the insufficient of transportation capacity, the long time of waiting. Therefore, studying the prediction of passenger flow volume after the reform of road passenger transportation and establishing the schedules scientifically and reasonably has important theoretical and practical significance. The study analyze the advantages, preconditions and problems of public transportation base on the road passenger transportation development history, present situation and development trend. Basing on the increase of passenger flow after the public of road passenger transportation, the study divide the increase into two groups: trend passenger flow volume, induction passenger flow volume. And then select GM(1,1) model, gravity model respectively for the prediction of passenger flow volume according to their characteristics. With a predicted growth rate, the study can obtain the predicted section passenger flow volume after handling the investigative section passen