高速公路多车道交通流诱导策略的研究-控制理论与控制工程专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据   I 摘 要 近年来，随着我国社会经济的迅猛发展，交通运输产业急剧扩大，对公路交 通运行能力提出了更高的要求。为了适应这一变化，现有高速公路逐步拓宽路面 至双向八车道、十车道，一定程度上极大的提升了高速公路的通行能力。然而， 车道拓宽的高速公路仍然采用过去客货混行的通行模式，不仅对提高道路的通行 能力有限，而且极易引发交通事故，造成人员伤亡和财产损失，降低道路的通行 能力。如果能依据不同类型车辆通行数量的比例对车道进行分配管理，并且根据 车流量短时预测的结果对通行车辆实施动态智能诱导，即可进一步优化车道利用 率，提高高速公路运行效率。具体而言，本文的主要研究工作如下： （1）利用一次指数平滑法、BP 神经网络以及小波神经网络分别对交通流进 行预测，提出了经验模态和小波神经网络相融合的算法，并和前几种预测模型进 行比对，验证了两者融合的算法具有预测准确，误差小的优势。 （2）通过对当前我国高速公路多车道交通流特性的分析，利用 TransModeler 仿真软件建立不同时段、不同车型、不同车速下的日交通流量模型，就建立的双 向八车道西宝高速进行了多种分车道运行模型的仿真，并给出了双向八车道，在 客货比达到何种比例时采用哪种类型的交通管理模式。 （3）把预测结果和多车道的管理模式通过通信设备发送到客户端，引导驾 驶员选择合理的行车路线，避开车流量大、堵车路段，对提高高速公路的通行能 力具有极大的现实意义。 关键词：多车道，短时预测，动态智能诱导，TransModeler  Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of society and economy, transportation industry expanded dramatically, the ability to run on the highway propose higher requirements. To accommodate this change, gradually widening the existing highway pavement to two-way eight-lane, ten-lane, to some extent, which greatly enhance the capacity of the highway. However, lane widening of the highway is still used in the past mixed run mode, only a limited capacity to improve roads, and can easily lead to accidents, reducing road capacity. If we can access the proportion of the number of vehicles on the basis of different types of lane allocation management, and according to result of forecast about traffic to induce vehicles, we can further optimize the lane utilization, and improve operating efficiency highway. Adopted lane management of this paper will largely enhance the capacity of the road. （1）The use of a exponential smoothing, BP neural network and wavelet neural network to predict traffic flow, and empirical mode algorithm and wavelet neural network convergence were presented, and before several prediction models were compared to verify the two by fusion algorithms predict accurately with advantage. （2）It analyzes the freeway multi-lane traffic flow characteristics, and use TransModeler software to build daily tra