基于GIS的城市供水管网动态震害预测-结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractMany Abstract Many earthquake disasters have demonstrated that a water supplY pipe network in a city may be vulnerable to earthquake and the secondary disasters are more serious．So，it iS necessary to buiid GIS—based dynamic seismiC disaster predictiOn to urban water supplY pipe network for the need of earthquake hazard mitigation．ThiS paper presents some methods for solving these problems，which iS based on the fact in our country 1he seismiC disasters features and behavior mechanisms of the buried water supplY pipeline are analyzed by synthesiS and the breakage of the pipe joints caused by seismiC wave propagation as main disasters mode is led into．The soil一pipe interaction．and the soll—pipe slippage are discussed． Statistical experience method resulted from earthquake investigations and theoretical methods based on reliability theory are introduced．The reliability of buried pipeline iS researched．The method for estimate connective reliability of network by means of Monte Carle simulation technique and Breadth First Search method iS introduced．The connective rellability of water supply pipe network iS researched． Considering many factors of seismie disasters prediction are available as temporal change，the GIS—based dynamic seismie disaster prediction to urban water supply pipe network by means of Grey Theory and Probability Theory has been created．These presented methods have been programmed by C language．The model and the program have been tested in practice of dynamiC prediction to seismic disaster of water supplY pipe network in certain city． Keywords：Water Supply Pipe Network；Dynamic Prediction to seismiC disasters；Grey System；Statistic AnalysiS II 独创性声明本人声明所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研 独创性声明 本人声明所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研 究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他 人已经发表和撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得北京工业大学或其他教育机构 的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一nql作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均 已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示了谢意。 签名：生魍垒1 日期：皇QQ生：五：；o 关于论文使用授权的说明 本人完全了解北京工业大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学校肯权 保