基于GAP方法的发达国家债务可持续性研究-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 上世纪八十年代以来，发达国家在内外部原因作用下选择了债务经济的发展 方式，近三十年间债务经济模式与债务运用过程相互支持。2008 年金融危机使 发达国家债务问题凸显，债务不可持续风险集中爆发。本文梳理了代表性发达国 家的债务现状和债务维持手段，通过债务和关键经济指标的描述统计来分析发达 国家的债务基本情况，并通过 GAP 模型定量分析债务可持续性。 本文对发达国家债务基本情况的描述性统计主要侧重于债务水平和债务结 构、经济增长情况、以及宏观的货币政策和财政政策，主要根据国际经济环境和 各国经济周期，对数据进行横向和纵向对比，通过各阶段、各国的数据比较分析 得出较为直观的研究结果。本位的定量分析方法主要采用 GAP 指标体系。GAP 意为缺口，指在一定的理论基础和现实经济环境下，作为检验指标的经济变量目 标值与实际值之间的差额，是一类衡量财政、债务可持续性的重要指标的统称， 以 Blanchard 为主要代表。GAP 指标的分析过程汇总了债务可持续性高度敏感的 相关经济指标，定量给出了各国的债务可持续性以及调整空间，本文的 GAP 指 标分析结果与描述性统计的结论相互支持，并通过发达国家间的相互比较得出了 关于债务可持续性发展方向和调整方式的结论。 本文认为发达国家的债务经济模式需要做出调整，短期内需严格控制债务规 模并科学配置债务结构，中长期则内需要财政政策和经济发展方式的深刻改变。 关键词：发达国家 GAP 模型 债务经济 债务可持续性 Abstract The developed countries have chosen debt economy based on the subjective and objective environment since 1980’. The debt economy and debt circulation support each other in the last 30 years. However, the finance crisis in 2008 triggered the debt crisis in developed countries and the risk of debt unsustainability has broken out. This article study the present situation and maintaining means of debt in representative developed countries through descriptive analysis of key indicators about debt and economy, and then give the quantitative analyses with the method of GAP. The descriptive analysis is based on the debt amount, debt structure, economy development, monetary policy and fiscal policy. Through the comparison of different stages and countries this article gives a visual confirmation about the debt sustainability. The quantitative method this article use is GAP, which measure the difference between the actual value and the theoretical one and is a kind of significant indicators of fiscal and debt sustainability. Through GAP indicators this article gives the quantitative sustainability and space for adjustment. This study concluded that an adjustment is necessary to the debt economy, which means strictly controlling of the debt size and scientific allocation of debt structure in the short time and profound change of fiscal policy and