江西省点居民消费水平主要影响因素分析.docVIP

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT - 1 - 江西省居民消费水平主要影响因素分析 摘要 二十一世纪以来，随着经济的持续增长，人们的生活水平在不断的提高，消费水平也在持续增长。可以说，消费活动是经济活动的终点，一切经济活动的目的就是为了满足人们不断增长的消费需求；但另一方面，消费活动又是经济活动的起点，是拉动经济增长的动力。本文主要是基于江西省居民消费水平，利用eviews软件，输入数据、利用数据建模、对模型进行参数估计、检验（首先进行经济意义上的检验、拟合优度和统计检验，再用计量经济学中的异方差检验、自相关检验、多重共线性等进行检验）、确立方程最后对江西省未来居民消费水平进行预测。了解其主要趋势和决策因素影响力，并提供一定有效信息。 关键字：消费水平，线性模型，检验，预测 Abstract The 21 century, with the steady growth of economy, the living standard of people in improving the, consumption level also continues to grow. Can say, consumption activities is the end of economic activities, all economic activity goal is to meet the growing consumer demand; But on the other hand, consumption activities is the starting point of economic activities, is to stimulate economic growth. This paper is mainly based on the consumption level of jiangxi province, using eviews software, input data, use data modeling, the model parameter estimation, testing (that, first of all, the economic sense of inspection, goodness-of-fit and statistics test, then use the econometrics heteroscedastic inspection, the inspection, multiple linear related of inspection, etc) and establish the equation of jiangxi province last future consumption level of forecast. Understand the main trend and decision factors influence, and provide some effective information. Key word: consumption level, model, inspection, prediction 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216174 1. 引言 PAGEREF _Toc327216174 \h - 4 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216175 2. 数据的建立 PAGEREF _Toc327216175 \h - 5 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216176 3. 建立模型 PAGEREF _Toc327216176 \h - 6 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216177 4. 模型的检验及修正 PAGEREF _Toc327216177 \h - 6 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216178 4.1模型的参数估计 PAGEREF _Toc327216178 \h - 6 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216179 4.2 模型检验 PAGEREF _Toc327216179 \h - 7 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216180 4.2.1 经济意义上的检验 PAGEREF _Toc327216180 \h - 7 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216181 4.2.2 拟合优度和统计检验 PAGEREF _Toc327216181 \h - 7 - HYPERLINK \l _Toc327216182 5. 计