基于bp人工神经网络的大庆水库水质预测研究市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 - - II - Abstract The raw water warning system is thought to be more and more important these days because of the raw water pollution. This paper analyse the data from Daqin water automatic monitoring station and research the effect of forecasting water quality using BP neural network especially in frozen period. The model is also compared with other common models. This research provide technique supports for setting up a raw water warning system in the city and a reference for how to forecast water quality in cold areas. This paper introduces BP neural network and applies it to forecast water quality of Daqin reservior. According to the technological processes of local waterworks, network outputs are decided. The author also analyzes grey association between different water parameters and choose the inputs of the BP nerual network. The best strutrure of network is established through vast comparisons. From the result we can see that BP neural network is a suitable model for water quality predicton, and the change of water quality and lack of training samples will influence the effect. Daqin reservior locates in the Northeast China, where the frozen period persists a long time every year. This paper divides the data into two parts throughout the water temperature. And set up a BP neural network for each part. To the water parameters whose rule changes in the frozen period, seting up a network after classification can enhance the effect of forecasting. To the other water parameters, the result is even worse because of lack of samples. This paper set up other two common models: AR model and grey model. And make a comparison between these two models and BP neural network. Only when the curve is very smooth, AR model which has a high order is better than BP neural network. Grey model is not suitable for water quality when the water parameter changes fiercely. Keywords water quality prediction; BP neural network; frozen period - - III - 目