九华物流园区物流量预测分及其分摊分析.docxVIP

摘要随着国家对于发展物流业的大力支持以及相关文件的出台，物流 摘要 随着国家对于发展物流业的大力支持以及相关文件的出台，物流 园区的建设越来越成为各地发展经济的重要部分。而物流园区的合理 规划则是建设好物流园区的前提。因此，物流匿区规划越来越成为物 流晃研究的热点。 物流量的预测及其分摊是物流园区规划的重要内容。本文首先介 绍了九华物流园区的经济现状、产业现状、区位优势帮物流现状，然 后阐述了物流量的涵义，暴定了物流量的计算方法。其次，本文阐述 了预测的相关理论，并针对九华物流园区所在区域历史货运量的特 点，选择GM(1，1)对九华物流园区所在区域的货运量进行了预测。 最后，本文提出了物流量分摊的理论和方法，运用SE．DEA对四 个物流园区的综合物流服务能力进行了计算，结合九华物流园区的行 业定位以及区位优势建立了基于园区吸引能力的物流量分摊模型，并 在四个园区中进行合理分摊。并对九华物流园区各个环节的物流量进 行了计算，最终褥凄九华物流露区的物流量。 关键词：物流量，物流园区，物流量预测，物流量分摊 AB AB STRACT With the great support for development of logistics and the introduction of relevant documents raised by our country,the construction of logistics parks becomes more and more important for economic development country—widely．The reasonable planning of logistics parks is the premise of construction．Therefore，the planning of logistics parks becomes the research focus within logistics sector． Forecast and share of freight volume is the main content of Logistics Park’S planning．Firstly,the author introduces the economic situation， industry status，regional superiority and logistics status of Jiu—hua Logistics Park．Then the meaning of freight volume is expounded，at the same time，the method of calculating freight volume is defined in this paper．Secondly,forecast—related theory is presented in this paper,and GM(1，1)is used to forecast the freight volume within Jiu—hua’S region according to the features of historic data． Finally,the author brought forward the theory and method of sharing freight volume．SE—DEA is applied to calculate the comprehensive service capabilities of four parks．An attracted capacity—based share model of freight volume is established with the consideration of industry positioning and location advantages of Jiu—hua Logistics Park．The freight volume is shared reasonably within the four parks．Meanwhile，the freight volume is calculated in each link and the freight volume of Jiu—hua is obtained at 1 ast． KEY WORDS：freight volume，Logistics Park，forecast of freight volume，share of freight volume