旱情评价及抗旱减灾分析-水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

旱情评价及抗旱减灾研究 摘喜喜 本文分析了我国干学缺水的态势及成阁，建立了区域性旱情评价的宏观模型 和做观模型，并据此给出了相应的抗旱减灾的决策模型。最后以挝凹悄悄为 伊tli进行了分析。主要苦进行了以下工作: 1.对于导及思灾的成因进行了分析。结果表明 s 自然因索是引起干辱的主 姿原因，人类只是在~定程度上影响着干旱的发生:而旱灾则与人类的社会的经 济活动有很大的关系，人类的经济活动在相当程度上加剧了旱灾发生的频度。 2. 对眩域性旱情评价模型进行了研究， 建立了区域旱情评价的宏观模裂和 微观模型，分别对区域的早情进行综合的评价和对区域内某一行业(主要指农业〉 的旱情进行评价(包括对主要农作物在不同生育阶段和余生育期的暴情进行评 价〉。 J3. 对区域性抗旱减灾对策模型进行了研究，根据辱情评价模型的结果，研 究并提出了区域抗旱减灾的决策模型，包括区域内水资源优化分配模型、区域内 季节性水资源在不向农作物间的优化分配模型和农作物不同生育阶段糠溉用水 景的优化分配模型。 J 4 对激州市的阜情进行了评价及抗旱减灾的研究 依据所建立的模型对激 州市的恩情进行评价，并结合除州市的具体情况提出 i除州市抗旱减灾的对策，给 出其阜情决策系统模型 ，)-t 关键询:区市问:问呻均水棚内 1 时 STUDY ON DROUGHT EVALUATION AND DROUHT RESISTANCE STRATEGY ABSTRACT ln thls paper，the analysis of drought situation and caωe of Chlna is done Macro-model and micro-model of regional drought evaluation are developed， thereafter，the deterrnined model of drought resistance is developed. And the analysis of drought of Chu劝ou city is done as a case. I.The analysis of drought is done. It is concluded 也at natural conditions is the principle ca础。f drou酬， human activity on1y affects 世le development of drought. However，drought disast巳r has some由ing to do wi甘1 human activity. Without human activity，there is no drought disaster in some wa如· 2ηle research to regional drought evaluation model is done. Macromodelof regional drought evaluation is set up，considering all kind of demand to 阴阳 in the region; micro-model of drought evaluation is set up，considering irrigated water of crop in different growing stages. The research to deterrnined model of counter-drought is done .On the base of the evaluation model set up above，these models such as water resourωoptimal allocation model 、intraseasonal Water resource optimal allocation model 阳nong different kìnds of crops and irrigated waωr optimal allocation model in different growmg s凶ges The aualysis of drought in Chuzhou city is done. On the base of drought evaluation to Chu础。u city，你ategy of drought resistance of Chu-zhou city is put forward