基于贝叶斯和博弈论的承包商索赔研究-建筑与土木工程专业论文.docxVIP

RESEARCH RESEARCH oN EV地UATION 0F ENGINEERING INSUR ANCE RISK IN ALL ENTRUST AB STRACT The claim is a responsibility of contract allocation for construction risk between the construction’S side and owner’S side，it’S also a strategy to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests in the construction side，to make up for economic losses，and to improve economic efficiency．But a long time， there is a phenomena in China’S construction market that’S not dare to claim， cannot claim，don’t have the chance to claim，and don’t make a claim．In addition，the complexity and arduousness of claims also makes the prevention， analysis and calculation methods of claims have not yet agreed．As you see，the claims in management of engineering construction is in a relatively weak link，at the same time，the success of the claim is directly related to the vital interests of the contractor． In this paper，the Bayesian theory and game theory were binging in the management of project construction claim．Based on the research status of claims about engineering claim at home and abroad and the discussion of related theoretical basis．Firstly，this paper summarized the problems and the reasons of engineering claim in our country，used the different state of contract to comparative analysis and identified the opportunities of claims；and then based on the Game Theory to discriminate the type of game in Proj ect Claim，that is II 万方数据 the the limited number of bargain game theory，By used the principle of the Bayesian for setting up the mathematic model in the game of engineering claim； and combined with engineering examples for the calculation of Bayes rule， and get the solution of the game in engineering claims，verified the rationality，the scientificity of game models，Through the qualitative analysis of the opportunity about claim and the quantitative solution of the model in Bayesian game，providing the reference for the decision and judgment in engineering claim． Engineering claims；Contractors；Game Th