基于层次分析法和隐马尔可夫模型的风险评估方法研究-软件工程专业论文.docxVIP

硕士学位论文 Abstract Risk assessment is the foundation and premise of safety management of the network system，and risk management establishes risk strategy based on the results of risk assessment. The assessment method is the most key technology of risk assessment processes ，and the choice of 部sessment methods will affect the final outcome of risk assessment directly. Therefore，the studying of risk assessment methods is very important for safety management of the network system. The main tasks of this paper are， 1.This paper has thoroughly studied risk assessment systems both here and abroad ，including the standard and guide of risk assessment，risk assessment models， risk 臼sessment tools，risk assessment methods and 50 on. This pap町 has analyzed their respective characteristics ，merits，shortcomings and their trend of development by induction and contrast，and at the same time has also determined direction for the research aim of this pap町. Because the traditional risk assessment method ，Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)，is deeply subjected to the artificial factor，results dont consist with each other while scaling multifactor weight，influencing the accuracy of the conclusion and the dependability of the analyzing results. This pap臼 builds up a hierarchy risk assessment model. based on network-host-service-evaluation factor，uses the hierarchized calculation model to evaluate the risk grade of the network ，and advances a new AHP based on interval judgment matrix and adjusting judgment matrix. Concrete procedure5 are that，considering the given interval judgment matrix ，firstly， makes it consistently approximate a digital judgment matrix ，then brings an analytic hierarchy process of adjusting judgment matrix forward ，final1y，gains approximate weight of every layers elements. Experiments and examples have vaHdated that this method can quantize the risk condition accurately and automatical1y. In the risk analysis link，aiming at the d