中国银行业财务去杠杆影响系列.pdf

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China Chinese banks 1 May 2017 Banking / Finance Banks Industry Update Hans Fan, CFA Jacky Zuo Financial deleveraging impact Series 3 Research Analyst Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6353 (+852 ) 2203 6255 – Mounting capital pressure hans.fan@ jacky.zuo@ Capital raising wave on tighter regulations; staying cautious on smaller banks Stephen Andrews, CFA Facing tighter regulation of shadow banking, we expect rising capital pressure Research Analyst on smaller banks. Indeed, we have noted that 20 listed banks have announced (+852 ) - 2203 6191 capital raising plans worth Rmb517bn (Figure 15), among which Rmb66bn will stephen-a.andrews@ be issued via private placements. In a bear case, we estimate that listed banks would have to raise CET-1 capital of Rmb343bn, or 18% of their market cap. As Top picks trading below book, listed smaller banks would probably have to slow asset growth, shift to lower-return assets and cut dividends in the near term. We ICBC (1398.HK),HKD5.08 Buy remain cautious on smaller banks and prefer the Big Four and CMB, with much