国际财务管理杰夫马杜拉答案第九章.pdfVIP

Chapter 9 Forecasting Exchange Rates Lecture Outline Why Firms Forecast Exchange Rates Forecasting Techniques Technical Forecasting Fundamental Forecasting Market-Based Forecasting Mixed Forecasting Forecasting Services Reliance on Forecasting Services Forecast Error Potential Impact of Forecast Error Measurement of Forecast Error Forecast Accuracy Among Currencies Forecast Bias Graphic Evaluation of Forecast Performance Comparison of Forecasting Methods Forecasting Under Market Efficiency Using Interval Forecasts Methods of Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility 131 132 International Financial Management Chapter Theme This chapter stresses the value of reliable forecasts, but suggests that reliable forecasts can’t always be obtained. Because no single forecast technique has been singled out as superior, various techniques are mentioned. Whatever techniques the MNC chooses, it should monitor performance over time. This chapter illustrates how this evaluation can be accomplished. Topics to Stimulate Class Discussion 1. Which forecast technique would you use if you were hired by an MNC to forecast exchange rates? 2. Do you think there will ever be a published technical forecasting model that you could use in the future to most accurately forecast exchange rates? Why or why not? 3. Recall the theories of purchasing power parity (PPP) and international Fisher effect (IFE) in Chapter 8. If these theories were used to forecast exchange rates, which techniques would they be classified as? Why? 4. Assume there is a regression model that was able to identify the factors which affected ex