基于系统分析方法的建材价格风险管理研究-项目管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文 万方数据 万方数据 基于系统分析方法的建材价格风险管理研究 摘 要 随着房地产调控政策的不断紧缩，2011 年的房产形势已进入冰 点。限购、限贷、加息等不利因素，使得二手房市场持续低迷，新开 楼盘更是在竞相降价促销之后仍然无法挽回成交量持续走低的形势。 为了维持生存，几乎所有的房地产开发商都不约而同的加大了对 工程成本的把控，以求以更低的造价在狭小的利润空间里谋求发展。 建筑材料的价格是影响工程造价最主要也是最直接的因素之一， 但其本身却又不仅仅受房地产行业兴衰的影响。因此，本文就建筑建 材价格涨跌的因素进行分析，并就其对工程造价产生的影响和风险管 理加以阐述。 关键词：建材价格，工程造价，风险识别，风险定量分析，层次分析 法，风险应对 1 The Risk Management Of Engineering Building Materials Prices Based On Systems Analysis Methods ABSTRACT With the continued tightening of real estate control policies， real estate situation in 2011 has entered the freezing point. Limit buy， limit loans， increased interest rates and other unfavorable factors， making the second-hand housing market continues to slump. The situation still remained low volume can not be changed after new real estate reduced prices to increase sales. In order to survive， almost all real estate developers are increasing efforts to control the cost of the project. Lower the project cost in the small profit margins for development. The impact of prices of construction materials is one of the most important factors of project cost. However， prices of construction materials has not only affected by the impact of the real estate industry. Therefore， I try to analyze the factor of the price change of building materials and to elaborate the impact of project cost from the price change of building materials by this article. KEY WORDS: building materials price, project cost, risk identification, quantitative risk analysis, analytic hierarchy process, risk response 2 目 目 录 上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文 目 录 1 绪论 ...........................................................1 1.1 本论文的研究背景 .......................................1 1.2 工程造价风险管理的国内外现状 ............................2 1.2.1 风险管理的历史发展.................................2 1.2.2 建筑工程类风险管理的国内外现状.....................2 1.3 建筑工程造价的相关组成及其影响因素.......................3 1.3.1 建筑工程造价的概念.................................3 1.3.2 建筑工程造价的组成.................................3 1.3.3 影响建筑工程