国际石油价格波动对俄罗斯经济增长的影响研究-世界经济专业论文.docxVIP

首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 《国际石油价格波动对俄罗斯经济增长的影响研究》 贸易合约价格的变动近似同步。最后，本文的方差分解分析更一步表明，国际油价 波动对俄罗斯国内生产总值的贡献度是lO．3％，总体来看俄罗斯宏观经济增长对石 油是十分依赖的，但是俄罗斯对国际石油价格的影响十分微小，仅是被动接受国际 石油价格的波动。为了解决国际石油价格对俄罗斯经济增长造成的负面影响，增强 俄罗斯经济增长的自主性，作者认为：俄罗斯政府加快推进并落实外贸服务经济现代 化战略，降低出口商品结构的能源化比重；继续改革石油赋税体系，优化石油租金 分配；刺激内需拉动经济增长；最后俄罗斯政府要积极融入国际石油定价系统，减 轻国际油价波动对经济增长的负面影响。 关键词 国际石油价格波动 俄罗斯国内经济增长 VAR模型 万方数据 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 《国际石油价格波动对俄罗斯经济增长的影响研究》 ABSTRACT Since mankind entered in twenty．first Century,with the development of the world economy and the rise of emerging countries．the world’S demand for oiliS increasing．Now, Russia iS one of the world most major oil exporting countries，in an era of rapid growth in international oil prices．Russia’S reliance on exports large quantities of petroleum access to the huge foreign exchange income，these oil wealth to support and promote the rapid development of Russia’S economy．Therefore，many domestic scholars began to study the relationship between intemational oil prices and Russia’S economic growth．Relationship between the in．depth study on the intemational oil price and the Russian economy,Can make the scholars in the related fields of the more profound understanding gained since the Russian state transition of the fruits of economic growth and promote the major dynamic factors in the growth of the national economy．At the same time，the research results of related issues have a very important theoretical reference value and practical significance to the related cooperation between China and Russia． Based on the relevant literature theory，the author reviews the related articles and writings about the influence of the intemational oil price fluctuation on the economic growth of a country since 1 970s．Foreign scholars research results confirmed that the intemational oil price fluctuations on the oil importing country’S economic growth with the influence of non symmetry,for example，the rise in intemational oil