第四章-短期经济波动——1.-总需求与总供给.pptVIP

宏观经济学 第四章 短期经济波动 宏观经济学 中国石油大学 初级宏观经济学 第四章 短期经济波动 本章我们将学习到： 第一节 总需求与总供给 第二节 货币和财政政策对总需求的影响 第三节 总需求的IS-LM模型 第四节 通货膨胀与失业之间的短期交替关系 第五节 经济周期理论（#） 思考问题（2） 阅读本章节的内容，思考一下问题： 如果没有货币，我们平时买东西用什么来进行交换？这样会有什么问题？ 本节内容 本节内容 Long run: Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand Short run:many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level 放弃古典二分法、货币中性 本节内容 Y = C + I + G + NX Y = C + I + G + NX Y = C + I + G + NX Y = C + I + G + NX Y = C + I + G + NX 本节内容 本节内容 The shock shifts AD left, causing output and employment to fall in the short run 4、供应冲击 Supply shocks A supply shock alters production costs, affects the prices that firms charge. (also called price shocks) Examples of adverse supply shocks: Bad weather reduces crop yields, pushing up food prices. Workers unionize, negotiate wage increases. New environmental regulations require firms to reduce emissions. Firms charge higher prices to help cover the costs of compliance. (Favorable supply shocks lower costs and prices.) CASE STUDY:  The 1970s oil shocks Early 1970s: OPEC coordinates a reduction in the supply of oil. Oil prices rose 11% in 1973 68% in 1974 16% in 1975 Such sharp oil price increases are supply shocks because they significantly impact production costs and prices. CASE STUDY:  The 1970s oil shocks The oil price shock shifts SRAS up, causing output and employment to fall. CASE STUDY:  The 1970s oil shocks Predicted effects of the oil price shock: inflation ? output ? unemployment ? …and then a gradual recovery. CASE STUDY:  The 1970s oil shocks Late 1970s: As economy was recovering, oil prices shot up again, causing another huge supply shock!!! CASE STUDY:  The 1970s oil shocks 1980s: A favorable supply shock--a significant fall in oil prices. As the model would predict, inflation and unemployment fell: 5、稳定政策 Stabilization policy def: policy actions aimed at reducing the severity of short-run economic fluctuations. Example: Using monetary policy