第五章：短期经济波动.pptVIP

* * 5、短期菲利普斯曲线 在短期，通货膨胀和失业之间存在负相关，决策者可以通过财政政策和货币政策来影响总需求，从而选择一个通货膨胀和失业的结合点。 * * 短期菲利普斯曲线的位置取决于预期的通货膨胀率。如果预期通货膨胀率上升，该曲线向上移动，这时，失业水平和通货膨胀率都处于更高位置。 * * 短期菲利普斯曲线表明：通货膨胀率的降低要以失业率的上升（或GDP的下降）为代价，反之亦然。因此，政策决策者要在两者之间进行权衡。 经验证明：降低1％的通货膨胀率牺牲的GDP约为5％（牺牲率）。由于，GDP每下降2％，失业率将上升1％（根据Okun’s Law），所以，降低1％通货膨胀率会使失业率上升2.5％。（参阅P.366的案例研究） 反通货膨胀（disinflation）一般有两种方式： ——“Cold Turkey”：以较高的失业率和较短的时间来降低通货膨胀率； ——“Incrementalism”：以较低的失业率和较长的时间来降低通货膨胀率，我们也把这种方式叫做：soft landing。 * * 6、长期菲利普斯曲线 Friedman等人将Phillips curve分为短期和长期，他们认为，失业和通货膨胀在短期存在trade-off的关系，但在长期不会存在。( inflation and unemployment.pdf) Lucas等人认为，由于公众的理性预期，不论是短期还是长期，失业和通货膨胀都不会存在trade-off 的关系。 长期菲利普斯曲线表明，失业率回到自然率水平，决策者采用的财政和货币政策将不会影响产出和就业。 * * 本章小结 * * The end * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Over the long run, real GDP grows about 3 percent per year. Over the short run, though, there are substantial fluctuations in GDP, as this graph clearly shows. The pink shaded vertical bars denote recessions. This graph also shows the growth rate of consumption (from Figure 9-2(a) on p.255). I have graphed both variables on the same graph to make it easier for students to see that, in most years, consumption is less volatile than income. (An exception occurs in the late 1990s, when consumption growth exceeded income growth – probably due to the stock market boom.) As Chapter 16 covers in more detail, consumers prefer smooth consumption, so they use saving as a buffer against income shocks. Source of data: See Figure 9-1, p.254 * This graph reproduces GDP and consumption growth using a larger scale. The scale accommodates the investment growth rate data. The point: investment is much more volatile than consumption or GDP in the short run. Source: See Figure 9-2, p.255 * * The green boxed equation in the upper right is the Okun’s Law equation shown on the bottom of p.256. In this equation, “u” denotes the unemployment rate. * * * * * 六、总供给冲击（Aggregate Supply Shock）