基于BASS模型的国内博客扩散模式研究-河北工业科技-河北科技大学.PDF

25 4 河 北 工 业 科 技 Vol. 25, No . 4 2008 7 H ebei Journal of Industrial Science and T echnolog Jul 2008 : 1008- 1534( 2008) 04-0203- 05 BA SS , ( 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院, 上海 200030) : 利用BASS 模型对国内博客的扩 模式进行了探讨梳理了博客的有关概念, 简单介绍了 BASS 模型及其发展, 利用博客规模统计数确定模型参数, 并进行拟合检验在此基础上, 对中国 未来博客规模的发展进行了预测 : 博客; BASS 模型; 扩 模式; 预测 : F713. 54 : A Research on the diffusion mode of domestic blogs based on BASS model LIN G Si-w u, LI Na-i he ( Antai College of Economics and M anagement, Shanghai Jiao T ong Universit , Shanghai 200030, China) Abstract: This paper discussed the diffusion mode of domestic blog based on BASS model. T he relative concepts about blog were clarified, and BA SS model and its development histor were briefl int roduced. Then, model parameters were determined b statistics about the blog volume, and the fitting degree w as tested. Based on the above, the future development for domest ic blog volume w as predicted. Key words: blog ; BASS model; diffusion mode; prediction [ 2] ( Blog) , , [ 3] , [ 4] , BA SS , , [ 5] BASS , , , , , [ 1] 1969 ( BASS) , , , 1 , BASS 1. 1 , / 0 Blog , Blog Weblog W eblog : 2008-03-25