考虑气象因素的风电场风速及风电功率短期预测研究-电力系统及其自动化专业毕业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE IV Research on short-term wind speed and wind power forecasting considering meteorological factors in wind farm ABSTRACT With the increasingly wind power penetration, the impacting of grid-connected wind farm to the power grid will be increasingly serious, which maybe damage the power system operation of economic, security, stability. Wind is the driving force of wind power, but wind energy has strong randomness and volatility, making wind power penetration sharp fluctuations, the major impact of grid-connected wind farm to the system include: frequency stability, power angle stability, voltage stability, harmonics, voltage fluctuation and flicker, net loss and the trend of the distribution, back-up cost, schedule planning, system reliability and other aspects. A good wind power forecasting results can allow operators to make dispatch plans, to arrange for the combination of unit and back-up system, and so on, as a result, the impact of grid-connected wind farm to the power grid will be reduced. On the one hand, the difficulty of the wind speed prediction lies in: wind can be affected by many factors, including the geographical and meteorological, geographic factors such as topography, landforms, latitude and others, meteorological factors such as on the temperature, wind levels, humidity and so on, changing of each factor may lead to the change in wind speed, these facts make less regularity of daily variation of wind speed, forecasting results can not make satisfactory; On the other hand, researchers can analyze the relevance between wind speed and various factors, and extract useful information by the relevance of wind speed with factors, which are useful to wind speed forecasting. In this paper, the methods, including intuitive method and statistics method are used to analysis the relevance of wind speed with the main meteorological information. Intuitive method is as following: selecting wind speed and the relevant weather information in a continuo