三峡库区码头安全综合评价分析及对策研究-港口海岸及近海工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 随着三峡水库的运行，航道条件得到较大改善，同时，随着经济的快速发展， 水运运输市场十分繁荣，船舶大型化发展趋势日益明显。而库区现有大多数码头 已经运营数十年时间，不仅三峡蓄水带来的自然条件的变化，会对码头的安全运 营产生一定的影响，而且存在结构型式、装卸工艺、人员素质等条件相对落后的 问题。在此情形下，船舶大型化所带来的安全隐患日益突出。因此，急需建立一 套科学的评估体系和方法，对三峡库区码头整体安全性进行评估，以满足码头安 全运营的要求。 安全评估是在识别风险因素的基础上，综合考虑风险发生的可能性和风险发 生后的严重程度，分析风险可能带来的影响，以提供降低或防止风险发生的措施。 本文依据三峡库区码头的现状进行分析和预测，采用模型论证方法对库区码 头安全做出综合评价。首先，分析了影响码头安全的相关因素，即自然条件因素、 装卸工艺因素、靠泊能力因素和管理水平因素；其次，通过分析这些因素，初步 建立起一套适合三峡库区码头安全的综合评价指标体系，并采用层次分析法和模 糊综合评判方法对库区码头安全进行综合评估；最后通过实证分析，检验建立的 评价指标体系和评价方法的实用性和有效性，并为库区码头的安全运营提供了可 供参考的改善措施和建议。 关键词：三峡库区；码头；安全；综合评估 ABSTEACTWith ABSTEACT With the three gorges reservoir operation,the navigation condition has improved greatly，and谢m the rapid development of economy，water Wansport market very prosperity,ship large-scale development trends are also increasingly obvious．However, most of the existing wharf had run in decades，not only the three gorges reservoir brings change about natural condition and the safety operation of wharf will produce certain effect,but also the existing conditions of structural type，handling technology， personnel掣lali够and so 011 had fallen behind relatively．In this∞∞，potential safety hazard of ship large—scale is mole and more serious．Therefore，it is imperative to establish a scientific evaluation system and methods to evaluate the dock safety and meet the requirements of the safe operation dock． Safety assessment is On the basis of risk identification，to take possibility of risk happening and its ponderanee into account，and to provide risk control measures． The paper rests on the wharf of the three gorges reservoir area analysis and the future predict,adopting the model analysis and the computation umfy to the wharf safety． Firstly，we analyze the related factors on the wharf security,namely natural condition factor,handling technology factor,anchorage capacity factor and the management level factors；second,by analyzing these factors，set up a set of three gorges reservoir dock safety for the comprehensive evaluation ind