失业预警系统中指标体系构建与模型选择研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

广东工业大学硕士学位论文Abstract 广东工业大学硕士学位论文 Abstract At present，Chinas GDP growth rate down，the economy into the new normal stage．In the face ofthe current economic difficulties，the Chinese government put forward to strengthen the reform of the supply side．The supply side reforms to eliminate backward production capacity,will inevitably lead to some employees laid off,and therefore lead to the society on the supply side reforms will induce the”unemployment’intense discussions，American Nobel the economics prize winners Joseph Stiglitz pointed out：without sufficient demand and supply side reforms but will increase unemployment．Whether the supply side reform will lead to a large number of unemployed，the answer is still unknown．But regardless of whether the increased unemployment,build up the early—warning mechanism of unemployment,grasp the dynamics of unemployment， and combining with the data mining technology and mathematical methods，effects of unemployment on the important factors ale analyzed,and the unemployment crisis before the outbreak of the beforehand control，undoubtedly has a very important significance． Construction of unemployment early warning indicator system and choose unemployment early warning model is to study the key issues ofunemployment early warning stage． The construction of the early-warning index system of unemployment is not perfect in the previous studies，the neglect of the unemployment situation itself and the social security will affect the change of unemployment．Tbis article is selected from the national economic development,labor,and the price of living，social security and unemployment and other aspects ofthe 24 factors as the primary index，by comparison analysis and correlation analysis ofrandom forests screening index，use random forests screened 1 0 a high degree ofcorrelation index as an argument variable．In the choice of measure index of unemployment,the vast majority of research is the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns，but re