两类时滞传染病模型的动力学分析-应用数学专业论文.docxVIP

赣南师 赣南师范学院硕士学位论文 PAGE PAGE IV 摘 要 传染病动力学模型是生物数学模型的一个重要组成部分. 研究传染病的传播和预测传 染病的发展趋势, 是研究传染病的主要目标, 它是政府部门和卫生医疗机构制定相应措施 的理论基础. 本文使用仓室建模的方法建立了两类传染病模型并分析了它的动力学性质. ?全文共分为三章. 在第一章中, 介绍了传染病模型研究的目的和意义, 并回顾了传染病 研究的现状和进展. 在第二章中, 建立了一类具有非线性发生率和脉冲接种的时滞 SEIRS 模型. 分析得到了无病周期解的存在性以及它的确切表达式. 定义了两个阈值分别为 R??和 ? ?R??, 运用比较原理分析得到了 R ? 和 R??的确切表达式. 当 R ??1 时, 无病周期解是全局吸 引的; 当 R????1时, 系统是持久的. 理论结果说明, 提高脉冲的成功接种率, 缩短脉冲接种 的周期, 延长免疫期和潜伏期都将有利于疾病消亡. 反之, 脉冲的成功接种率越小, 潜伏期 越短都会导致疾病流行. 在第三章中, 建立了一类带有非线性发生率的时滞 SIA 模型. 分析 得到了模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性以及基本再生数 R0 的确切表达式. 通过 讨论无病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性和全局吸引性, 得到了当 R0 ??1时, 无病平衡点是全局 渐近稳定的, 也就是意味着疾病在人群内的消亡. 进一步, 得到了当 R0 ??1 时, 模型在 p ??1的情形下疾病（或染病者）是持久的. 最后, 通过构造 Liapunov 函数, 讨论了模型在 p ??1的情形下地方病平衡点的稳定性. 关键词: 传染病模型; 时滞; 脉冲免疫接种; 持久性; 稳定性 Abstract Epidemic dynamical model is an important part of mathematical models in biology. Exploring epidemic spreading and predicting its development trend are main objectives for epidemical study, and they are the theoretical basis of control policy adopted by the government and medical department. The aim of this work is to construct two epidemic mathematic models by the method of compartment model and study their dynamical behaviors. The full text is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, we introduce the purpose and significance of the epidemic models, and review the status and progress of the study of infectious disease. In the second chapter, a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and nonlinear incidence is formulated. We obtain the exact formulation of the infection free period ?solution of the impulsive epidemic system. We obtain two new threshold values R??and R . ? According to the comparison theorem of impulsive differential equations, we obtain the explicit ?formulation of R??and R . Under the condition ?  R?????1, the infection free period solution is globally attractive, and  R?????1  implies that the model is permanence. Theoretical results show that a large vaccination rate or a shor