利率变动对我国价格水平影响的传导机制研究-数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract This paper investigates the mechanism of how interest influences prices level under china’s interest control institution. We find that interest control brings on the characteristic of anti-cycle of real interests. The anti-cycle real interests influence aggregate demand through two channels. One is related to Chinese special economic institution. Another is related to individuals and firms’ asset choice. China’s special competition economic institution for growth harden firms’ budget constraints. The investments of enterprises is sensitive to real interests. Local governments’ investment and recruiting investments based on economic stimulus is influenced by real interests adjustment significantly. And Local governments’ investment and recruiting investments based on political stimulus is not influenced by real interests adjustment significantly. And this stimulates local governments investment impulsion. Investment impulsion results in china’s high investment. But in the game of political promoting local governments have the motivation of smoothing investments. Whether the fluctuation of real interests leads to fluctuation of investment or not is depending on the comparison between fluctuating part and smoothing part of investment in the institution of competition between local governments. The inventory behaviors of household and firm enlarge the fluctuation of price level. Interest control decreases real interests under inflation, and this brings on the rise of avenue and the fall of cost of inventory. So the increase of household and firms’ inventory investment raises the prices level. As the prevailing of speculation in Chinese stock market, the high income of stock speculation induces individuals translating deposit to cash. And this liquidities become another source of aggregate demand. The empirical studies show that importance should be attached to Chinese interest policy in china’s macro-economy. Interest control enlarges fluctuati