资本成本与资本预算.pptVIP

S L CF0 -100,000 -100,000 CF1 60,000 33,500 Nj 2 4 I 10 10 NPV 4,132 6,190 NPVL NPVS. 长期项目 L 更好? 很难说，需要以共同时期换算。 * 将项目 S 重复展延成一个4年期项目。 利用重置链或相等年金分析进行决策。 * 重复项目 S : NPV = $7,547. 重置链法 0 1 2 3 4 项目S: (100) (100) 60 60 60 (100) (40) 60 60 60 60 * 与项目 L 的NPV = $6,190相比. 或，使用 NPVs: 0 1 2 3 4 4,132 3,415 7,547 4,132 10% * 如果项目 S的投资成本两年后上涨到 $105,000, 哪个项目更好? NPVS = $3,415 NPVL = $6,190. 选择项目 L. 0 1 2 3 4 项目S: (100) 60 (105) (45) 60 60 * Year 0 1 2 3 CF ($5,000) 2,100 2,000 1,750 Salvage Value $5,000 3,100 2,000 0 考虑另一个3年期项目. 如在3年未到期结束项目，机器仍然有残值（salvage value） * 1.75 1. 不停止项目 2. 两年停止项目 3. 一年停止项目 (5) (5) (5) 2.1 2.1 5.2 2 4 0 1 2 3 各种状况下的现金流 * NPV(no) = -$123. NPV(2) = $215. NPV(1) = -$273. 假定 10% 的资本成本，求项目的最佳或经济生命? * 如果项目仅营运两年，可以接受。 项目的工程寿命与经济寿命不一定完全相同！ 结论 * Remind students that D1 = D0(1+g) You may also want to take this time to remind them that return is comprised of the dividend yield (D1 / P0) and the capital gains yield (g) So, investors are currently requiring a return of 11.1% on our equity capital. Our historical growth rates are reasonably close, so we could feel reasonably comfortable that the market will expect our dividend to grow at around 5.1%. Note that when we are computing our cost of equity, it is important to consider what the market expects our growth rate to be, not what we may know it to be internally. The market price is based on market expectations, not our private information. Another way to estimate the market consensus estimate is to look at analysts’ forecasts and take an average. Point out that there is no allowance for the uncertainty about the growth rate You will often hear this referred to as the Capital Asset Pricing Model Approach as well. www: Click on the web surfer to go to Bloomberg’s website. Both betas and 3-month T-bills are