我国城镇居民能源消费增长影响因素研究-中国区域发展网.pdf

我国城镇居民能源消费增长影响因素研究 Study on Impact Factors of Urban Dwellers Household Energy Consumption in China 王宇澄 \ WANG Yucheng （中国人民大学经济学院，北京，100872 ） 【摘　要】城镇化进程 中，居 民能源消费量的大幅增加对我 国能源供应造成 了很 大的压力。通过 LMDI 指数 因素分解方法，将我 国城镇居 民家庭能源消费总量影响 因素分为购买力、能源消费结构、生活消费结构、支出、人 口五方面。基 于 2005~2011 年全 国 及各省 区能源平衡表数据 ，研 究各 因素对居 民能源消费量的增加量的动 态影响过程。研 究发现 ：城镇化带来的人 口流入和居 民购 买力增强是推动城镇能源消费增长的最主要原 因；随着经济发展水平的提 高，城镇居 民支出中用于能源密集型产品的比重开始呈 现下降趋势；生活消费结构向能源密集型产品的转变不再是导致城镇居 民能源消费快速增长的主要 因素；同时，能源消费结构的 优化有利于促进能源消费节约；能源价格变化对能源消费有一定影响。此外，省级数据的研 究结果表示每种 因素在不 同地 区对于 能源消费量的影响差异很 大。 【关键词】居 民能源消费；城镇化 ；LMDI 分解法；能源消费结构 【中图分类号】F294.1 【文献标识码】A 【Abstract】During the process of urbanization, the acutely increase of urban dwellers household energy consumption has put huge pressure on energy supply in China. Through analyzing of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method, decomposed the impact factors of urban dwellers household energy consumption increase in China into five maj or factors, i.e. purchasing power, energy consumption structure, living consumption structure, expenditure and population, this paper analyses the dynamic influence process of each factor on urban dwellers household energy consumption increase and reasonably explains the external impact factors, basing on the data of national and regional energy balance table during 2005 to 20 11.The result shows that, increasing of the urban population and the purchasing power are maj or positive factors of the increase of urban dwellers household energy consumption, and the widespread using of the energy intensive production is no longer the important factor of increase of urban dwellers household energy consumption; optimizing of energy consumption structure is helpful to energy saving; energy price change has a certain influence on energy price change. In addition, analyzing of data in provincial level shows that, there is a great difference of the influence of each factor on energy consumption am