考虑风潮联合概率分布的海堤超越频率分析-河海大学.pdf

第34卷第6期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2014年11月 Vol.34 No.6 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Nov. 2014 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2014.06.004 考虑风、潮联合概率分布的海堤超越频率分析 1 2 1 1 王灶平 ,刘桂平 ,龚摇 政 ,张长宽 (1.河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏 南京摇 210098; 2.长江水利委员会水文局长江口水文水资源勘测局,上海摇 200136) 摘要:基于超越概率理论,选取最优Copula 函数建立潮位和风速的联合分布函数,对江苏沿海条子 泥匡围工程1989—2008年的实测年最高潮位和年最大风速资料进行分析,发现两者存在较弱的正 相关关系;选取GH鄄Copula 函数作为联合分布函数,计算得到风、潮组合的联合概率,进而求解其超 越累积概率,发现风潮相关情况下的超越累积概率比风潮相互独立情况下高,认为工程中需考虑其 联合概率。 关键词:海堤;潮位;风速;超越概率;联合概率分布;条子泥匡围工程 中图分类号:P753摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2014)06 0018 05 Exceeding cumulative probability analysis of seawall considering thejoint probability distribution of tide level and 1 2 1 1 wind speed/ / WANG Zaoping ,LIU Guiping ,GONG Zheng ,ZHANG Changkuan (1.College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Nanjing 210098,China;2.The Survey Bureau of the Hydrology and Water Resources of Changjiang Estuary,Changjiang WaterResources Commission,Shanghai200136,China) Abstract:Based on a present exceeding probability method,we selected an optimum Copula function to develop a joint probability distribution function of tide level andwind speed. Theyearly maximum tide level andwind speed during 1989鄄 2008 of Tiaozini Project in Jiangsu Province are adopted and we found a weak positive correlation between them. To calculate the joint probability, the GH鄄Copula function is selected as the joint distribution function. Considering the combination of tide level andwindspeed,theexceedingcumulativeprobability iscalculated. It isfoundthattheexceeding cumulative probability is higher when the wind and tide are related than that in t