全球-宏观策略-2019年Q4交叉货币基础展望.pdfVIP

Global Rates Strategy 03 October 2019 Cross currency basis 4Q19 Outlook Global easing from ECB, BoE and BoJ, pic -up in t-bill issuance and year-end turn support wider front-end bases  Global cross currency bases are expected to remain driven by relative Rates Strategy monetary policy dynamic, with the recent global easing priced in EUR, Fabio Bassi AC GBP and JPY following the inversion of the USD money market curve and (44-20) 7134-1989 the Fed easing providing a front end widening bias fabio.bassi@ J.P. Morgan Securities plc  Further support to wider FX OIS basis could come over the short term by Francis Diamon the crowding out effect of an increase in T-bill issuance in October and by a (44-20) 7134-1504 more pronounced year end turn on expected regulatory constraints francis.diamond@ impacting GSIBs J.P. Morgan Securities plc Khagendra Gupta  EUR/USD: Long term drivers as monetary policy differential (both in rates (44-20) 7134-0486 and QE terms) and increase in T-bill issuance support wider front-end khagendra.x.gupta@ EUR/USD FX OIS basis, with muted narrowing impact from