全球-宏观策略-2019年10月全球SSA展望：无限制的量化宽松来支持欧元超利差.pdfVIP

Global Rates Strategy 25 September 2019 Global SSA Oct19 outlook: open-ended QE to support €-supra spreads Aditya ChordiaAC Luke Chang Francis Diamond (44-20) 7134-2132 (1-212) 834-7562 (44-20) 7134-1504 aditya.x.chordia@ luke.chang@ francis.diamond@ J.P. Morgan Securities plc J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities plc Jay Barry Antoine Gaveau (1-212) 834-4951 (44-20) 7134-2880 hohn.f.barry@ antoine.gaveau@ J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities plc AC Indicates certifying analyst. See last page for analyst certification and important disclosures. Summary  €-SSA  €-SSA spreads outlook : stay OW €-SSAs as open-ended QE should support further tightening and credit curve flattening (slide 3)  Special focus: QE and €-supras – scarcity unlikely to be an issue until mi -2021; preference for recently issued bonds on €-supra curves on favorable QE technicals (slide 4)  Trading theme 1: stay long 30Y EFSF vs. swaps on QE re-instatement, increasing PSPP gross flows in coming months and lower supply pressures into year-end (slide 5)  Trading theme 23: stay OW German regional bonds vs. federal bonds via long 10Y NRW vs. Germany; 30Y/30Y+ NRW flattening bias (slide 6)  Trading theme 4: short-end €-SSAs remain cheap, especially vs. France; move long 4Y KfW vs. France to long 3Y ESM vs. France (sl