Ford战略分析资料－摩根斯坦利.ppt

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 34 1 Suppliers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003 Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Dealers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003 Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Expectations: Year Ago vs. Today Source: Morgan Stanley Research Stephen.Girsky@MorganS 1 6 6 3 5 6 6 2 6 2 2 18 22 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 US Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - Present Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Japanese Yen vs. U.S. Dollar Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03 Source: Company Data Morgan Stanley Research Note: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little Source: Morgan Stanley Research Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research *Morgan Stanley Estimates Excluding Pension OPEB Expense for the Big Three Porsche Nissan BMW Honda Toyota Hyundai GM Peugeot Kia VW DCX Renault Ford Fiat 16.4% 10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2% Higher Rates Could be a Negative Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings Extended terms suggest longer replacement rates. Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle. Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. Now Source: FRB Morgan Stanley Research GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs Source: FRB Morgan Stanley Research Big 3 Opportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality Source: JD Power, CNW Morgan Stanley Research The Big Three: Positives Negatives Each Company Faces Unique Challenges: GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs. Ford’s share is likely to remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cutting have been strong, cash flow needs to catch up. DCX continues to struggle with its product line. Quality issues, both perceived (Chrysler) and actual (Mercedes) continue to linger. Big Three Relative Stock Per