疏散避难操作基准.PDFVIP

2015 年中華水土保持學會年會及學術研討會 1 由時間域與空間域警戒雨量探討臺北市山坡地老舊聚落 疏散避難操作基準 [1*] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] 紀柏全 沈哲緯 冀樹勇 黃立遠 林士淵 連鈞毅 摘 要 臺北市政府工務局大地工程處針對轄內列管24 處山坡地老舊聚落訂有疏散避難雨量警戒 值 (勸導疏散 300mm/24hr ；強制疏散400mm/24hr) ，自民國96 年實行以來，有效防阻災害引 致聚落人命傷亡 。惟近年全球氣候變遷相關研究結果指出，颱風挾帶極端強降雨之發生頻率已由民國 89 年以前每3 至4 年發生 1 次，增為每年發生 1 次，以致災害造成的死傷與財物損失風險仍有逐年 攀高之勢。 有鑑於此，針對氣候變遷下極端降雨事件造成之坡地災害 ，為能有效防災、避災，本文由時間 域及空間域分析建立臺北市老舊聚落警戒雨量，綜合檢討現行疏散避難警戒值是否符合近年氣候變遷 所引致大量降雨事件下之適切性。其中，時間域分析係以 1959~2012 年侵襲臺北市之各颱風事件歷 史崩塌災點為分析基礎，輔以各颱風事件歷史雨量記錄，完成崩塌斜坡單元崩塌警戒雨量率定；另一 方面，空間域分析則以紀柏全等人(2014)研提之都會區住宅邊坡崩塌潛感評估模式為基礎，以中高潛 感及高潛感進行警戒雨量反算，最後綜合兩項警戒雨量結果，與現行臺北市聚落疏散避難雨量警戒值 進行比較與適切性探討，最後完成老舊聚落警戒雨量調升或調降之建議。 關鍵詞：山坡地老舊聚落、警戒雨量基準、空間域、時間域。 A Review of Rainfall Threshold Values for Landslide Warning for the Hillside Settlements in Taipei City Po-Chuan Chi [1*] Che-Wei Shen [2] Shu-Yeong Chi [3] Li-Yuan Huang [4] Shih-Yuan Lin [5] Jyun-Yi Lian [6] ABSTRACT For the 24 hillside settlements under watch in Taipei City, warning rainfall thresholds are set as 300mm/24hr for advised evacuation and 400mm/24hr for forced evacuation. Since their implementation in 2007, these thresholds have effectively prevented disasters from happening. However, recent climate change research suggested the frequency of typhoons carrying extreme rainfall has increased from once every 3 to 4 years pre-2000 to once every year. Consequently, casualties and property loss are on the rise. Obtained through a series of analyses in the spatial as well as in the temporal domain, each settlements advised and forced rainfall threshold values for evacuation are suggested in this research. Moreover, the suggested threshold values are compared to the value in operation in order to discuss the relevance of the values for a settlement’s evacuation. Key Words: Hillside settlement, rainfall