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附 录?1:英文原文
The?Renminbi’s?Dollar?Peg?at?The?Crossroads
In?the?face?of?huge?balance?of?payments?surpluses?and?internal?inflationary
pressures,?China?has?been?in?a?classic?conflict?between?internal?and?external?balance
under?its?dollar?currency-basket?peg.?Over?the?longer?term,?China’s?large,
modernizing,?and?diverse?economy?will?need?exchange?rate?flexibility?and,?eventually,
convertibility?with?open?capital?markets.?A?feasible?and?attractive?exit?strategy?from
the?essentially?fixed?RMB?exchange?rate?would?be?a?two-stage?approach,?consistent
with?the?steps?already?taken?since?July?2005,?but?going?beyond?them.?First,?establish?a
limited?trading?band?for?the?RMB?relative?to?a?basket?of?major?trading?partner
currencies.?Set?the?band?so?that?it?allows?some?initial?revaluation?of?the?RMB?against
the?dollar,?manage?the?basket?rate?within?the?band?if?necessary,?and?widen?the?band
over?time?as?domestic?foreign?exchange?markets?develop.?Second,?put?on?hold?ad?hoc
measures?of?financial?account?liberalization.?They?will?be?less?helpful?for?relieving
exchange?rate?pressures?once?the?RMB?basket?rate?is?allowed?to?move?flexibly?within
a?band,?and?they?are?best?postponed?until?domestic?foreign?exchange?markets?develop
further,?the?exchange?rate?is?fully?flexible,?and?the?domestic?financial?system?has?been
strengthened?and?placed?on?a?market-oriented?basis.
From?1997?until?July?21,?2005,?the?Chinese?authorities?pegged?the?renminbi(RMB)
price?of?the?United?States?dollar?within?a?narrow?range.?On?July?21,?2005,?China’s
authorities?moved?to?an?adjustable?basket?peg?against?the?dollar,?with?a?revaluation?of
the?central?RMB/$?rate?of?2.1?percent?relative?to?the?prior?central?rate?of?RMB?8.28
per?dollar.
Very?notably?in?view?of?the?claims?that?China’s?exchange?rate?policy?is?dictated?by
the?imperative?of?maintaining?an?undervalued?currency,?the?authorities?resisted
substantial?devaluation?pressures,?at?the?cost?of?some?deflation,?during?the?Asian?crisis
period?starting?in?1997.?For?some?
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