基于 BBN 的软件项目风险管理(中英文对照版).docVIP

BBN-based software project risk management 基于BBN 的软件项目风险管理 Abstract 摘要 This paper presents a scheme to incorporate BBNs (Bayesian belief networks in software project risk management. A theoretical model is defined to provide insights into risk management. Based on these insights, we have developed a BBN-based procedure using a feedback loop to predict potential risks, identify sources of risks, and advise dynamic resource adjustment. This approach facilitates the visibility and repeatability of the decision-making process of risk management. Both analytical and simulated cases are reported. 本文主要介绍了在软件项目风险管理中引入BBN (贝叶斯信任网络的方案。定义了一个了解风险管理的理论模型。基于这些了解,我们可以开发一个基于 BBN 的流程,该流程使用反馈环来预测潜在的风险,识别风险的源头,并提供关于动态资源调整的建议。此方法便于风险管理的决策过程的可视化和可重现。介绍了分析及模拟案例。 1. Introduction 简介 There exist many uncertainties in software development processes and products; for instance, the uncertainties in estimating project size, schedule, quality, and in determining resource allocation. Current software engineering techniques cannot eliminate such uncertainties. Thus, risk management (Boehm, 1991; Charette, 1989; Karolak, 1996 is critical. Kitchenham and Linkman (1997 proposed that uncertainty estimates were ‘‘best managed across an organization’s total portfolio’’. This implies that resources should be adjusted or reallocated among several projects so as to enhance the probabilities of project success. However, it may not be possible to manage several projects at the same time and share resources among them. Subjective ways to manage project risks are common in current practice. Such approaches are human-intensive and opaque. This paper shows that Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs can be utilized to provide more objective and visible support for decision making in risk management. We have designed a procedure to incorporate BBNs in a continuous monitoring loop to support the decision- making process of risk management. The rationale for this approach is as follows: 软件开发过程及软件产品中存在很多不确定;比如,评估项目大小、周期、质量以