2020年7月尼泊尔发展最新动态：后疫情的尼泊尔：制定复原力和未来增长方向的计划.docxVIP

Table of Contents Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations x Executive Summary xiii Recent Economic Developments 1 Outlook, Risks, and Challenges 21 Special Focus – Post-Pandemic Nepal – Charting a Resilient Recovery, and Future Growth Directions 27 Emerging Indications of the Economic Changes induced by COVID-19 29 Socioeconomic Impact of the Crisis in Nepal 30 A Framework for Recovery and Resilience 33 Charting Nepal’s transition from Relief and Restructuring to a Resilient Recovery 34 References 47 Boxes Box 1. Relief and recovery measures as announced in the FY2021 budget 4 Box 2. Policy measures to target credit to priority sectors and increase the availability of loanable funds 9 Box 3. Tax enhancement measures introduced prior to COVID-19 16 Box 4: Lessons from South Korea in Containing the Pandemic 28 Figures Figure 1. Delayed monsoons and armyworms caused paddy production to contract 1.7 percent in the first half of FY2020 2 Figure 2. The number of new businesses registered declined in the first half of FY2020 2 Figure 3. International tourist arrivals declined while international migration was subdued in the first half of FY2020… 2 Figure 4. …contributing to slower remittance growth and impacting consumption in H1FY20 2 Figure 5. International tourist arrivals plummeted by 85.6 percent (y/y) between mid-March and mid-May 2020 3 Figure 6. Remittances dropped by 43.4 percent (y/y) between mid-March and mid-May 2020 3 Figure 7. Merchandise imports declined substantially between mid-March and mid-May 2020… 3 Figure 8. …as did merchandise exports 3 Figure 9. Inflation increased to a 4-year high from July to March FY2020, driven by food prices… 5 Figure 10. …as vegetable prices rose, owing to the export ban on onions by India 6 Figure 11. Food prices in Nepal follow the movements of food prices in India 6 Figure 12. The real effective exchange rate rose with the increased inflation wedge between Nepal and India 6 Figure 13. Interest rates brea