人口流失对黑龙江省经济增长影响研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 本文在测算 2001-2018 年黑龙江省 13 个地级市流失人口数据基础上，对黑龙江省 流失人口相关数据进行统计分析，得到黑龙江省流失人口的特征：以青年男性人口为 主，多数未接受过高等教育，选择流出的主要原因是追求更高的经济报酬和获得更好的 发展机会。采取混合回归和 GMM 方法就人口流失对黑龙江省经济增长影响进行实证分析 发现，人口流失对黑龙江省经济增长具有显著的消极影响。 人口流失主要通过生产要素、年龄结构、消费结构以及产业结构变化四个渠道影响 黑龙江省经济增长。青年男性劳动力的大量流出使黑龙江省劳动力数量供给不足、老龄 化进程加快、消费结构偏老龄化，进一步导致黑龙江省经济发展动力不足，产业结构不 合理，影响经济增长。本文就以上问题从提高要素配置效率、解决人口老龄化问题、引 导消费结构改善和推动产业结构合理化与高级化进程方面提出对策建议，以期扭转黑龙 江省人口流失的局面并吸引人口回流，实现黑龙江省经济长期、稳定、向好的增长。 关键词 黑龙江省；人口流失；经济增长 - I - 哈尔滨商业大学硕士学位论文 Abstract On the basis of calculating the lost population data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang province from 2001 to 2018, this paper makes a statistical analysis of the lost population data in Heilongjiang province, and obtains the characteristics of the lost population in Heilongjiang province: young men are the main population, most of them have not received higher education, and the main reason for choosing to flow out is to pursue higher economic returns and obtain better development opportunities. The mixed regression and GMM methods are used to make an empirical analysis of the impact of population loss on the economic growth of Heilongjiang Province. It is found that population loss has a significant negative impact on the economic growth of Heilongjiang Province. Population loss mainly affects Heilongjiangs economic growth through four channels: production factors, age structure, consumption structure and changes in industrial structure. The large outflow of young male labor force has led to insufficient supply of labor force, accelerated aging process and aging consumption structure in Heilongjiang Pr