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长期来看,酒店行业供给端是决定行业景气程度的主要因素。从历史数据看,住宿业固定资产投资完成额增速(供给端)由35%下降至-12%,铁路及民航客运量(需求端)增速基本保持在10%左右,供给波动性明显大于需求端,因此,供给是决定行业景气程度的主要因素。我国酒店行业景气度呈现地域分化,供给扩张受限城市景气度持续上扬,其他城市维持紧平衡状态。以北上深为代表的供给扩张受限城市,新增酒店供给逐年减少,导致景气度持续上升,而其他城市不存在供给扩张受限,新增供给充裕,景气度维持紧平衡状态。
China Tourism and Hotels
Initiate coverage: Chain reaction gives hotel leaders room to grow
The move to mid-market hotels is set to drive industry growth
This should help China’s leading hotel chains rapidly increase their market share
Initiate coverage on Jinjiang Hotels (Buy), BTG Hotels (Hold) and China CYTS Tours (Hold)
Disclosures Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Why read this report?
We analyse the major shift to mid-market hotels…
…which leaves China’s major hotel chains very well positioned
We initiate coverage on two major hotel groups and a leading tourism company
Moving up to the mid-market
For the hotel industry, the key to growth is limited service hotels
The words “China” and “tourism” usually conjure up familiar images of the dominant force in the global travel industry. But there is another side to that story – the country’s huge domestic tourism industry. This report initiates coverage on two major hotel groups and a leading tourism company and assesses the state of these industries as they emerge from lockdown following the coronavirus outbreak.
For hotels, we think the key to growth is limited service hotels (LSH), an established part of the hospitality industry in Europe and the US, but a relatively new phenomenon in China. These hotels strip the amenities offered down to the basics, usually little more than a bed and a bathroom, with limited catering options. The business model is attractive as it lowers both the investment outlay and operational costs. Hotel guests are happy, too, as they get a comfortable room at a reasonable price.
Within the LSH segment, the mid-market hotels are growing their market share much faster than economy hotels, which is good for margins and profits. This hotel category is increasingly dominated by China’s large hotel chains. We think this shift to the mid-market is the main driver
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