西方经济学(宏观经济学)论文中英对照.pdf

To Spendorto Save?Trick Question It’syourfault.Partofitis,anyway.You,theAmericanconsumer, spenttoomuchmoney.Youboughttoomuchhouse,tookontoo muchdebtandgenerallylivedbeyondyourmeans.Your free-spendingwayshelpedcausetheworstfinancialcrisissincethe GreatDepression. Andnowyou’regoingtohavetodoyourparttoendthecrisis.How? Byspending.Enoughalreadywiththesavingthatmanyofyou havesuddenlybegundoing.Thisverymoment,Congressand PresidentObamaarepreparingtosendyouataxrebate,toinspire youtostimulatetheeconomy.Sogooutandstimulate.Spendasif thefutureofyourcountrydependedonit. JohnMaynardKeynes,thegreat20th-centuryeconomist,would haveappreciatedtheapparentabsurdityinthesemixedmessages. Hecoinedaphrase,“theparadoxofthrift,”topointoutthatwhat wasrationalforanindividualduringhardtimes—savingmoney— couldberuinousforanentireeconomy.Eventually,manyofthe saversmayendupoutofworkbecauseeveryoneelseissaving,too. It’senoughtomakeyouwonderwhatexactlyyou’resupposedto do.AthisnewsconferenceonMondaynight,Mr.Obamawas askeddirectlywhetherpeopleshouldspendorsavetheirrebate checks.Heduckedthequestion. Fortunately,though,ithasananswer.Thereareafewwaystohelp bothyourownfinancesandthecountry’s. Thefirstinvolvesfiguringouthowtospendmoneynowtosave moneylater—whichcanlifttheeconomytodayandhelp individualhouseholdscopewiththeirbatteredfinancesinthelong run.ThesecondinvolvesrealizingthatKeynes’sparadoxisn’t ironclad.Inafinancialcrisis,whenbanksmayneedcapitalas muchasretailersorrestaurantsneedbusiness,manypeoplecan savewithoutguilt. Whatfollowsisaguidetospendingandsaving,bothsensiblyand patriotically. Besidesdevelopingthemostfamousprescriptionforcuring downturns,Keynescanalsobeconsideredthegodfatherof behavioraleconomics,asthecolumnistDavidIgnatiusrecently wrote.Whileothereconomistsobsessedoverstatisticalmodels thattreatedpeopleashyperrationalautomatons,Keyneswrote about“animalspirits.”Hehelpedexplainhowpsychologyshaped economics. Psychology-tingedeconomics—thatis,behavi