基于人口年龄结构和房价视角的消费结构升级.pdf

基于人口年龄结构和房价视角的消费结构 升级 黄浩，雷钦礼** 5 （暨南大学经济学院，广州510632 ） 摘要：在高房价、少子化出现政策拐点、人口老龄化程度日益加深的背景下，采用2004-2013 年省际面板数据和动态面板系统GMM 估计方法，研究房价和人口年龄结构对我国城镇居民 消费结构的影响。结论显示，鉴于我国房地产市场存在一定程度的投机行为，房价波动对我 10 国消费的影响具有结构性差异，而人口年龄结构方面，少儿抚养比的升高只抑制了衣着消费 支出，老年抚养比的升高可以促进家庭设备和医疗保健消费。最后提出了我国居民消费结构 升级的对策和建议。 关键词：消费结构; 人口年龄结构; 房价; GMM 估计 中图分类号：F126.1 15 The Research on Consumption Structure Upgrade from the Perspective of Population Age Structure and Housing Price Huang Hao, Lei Qinli (Economics School, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632) 20 Abstract: In the background of high housing price, low birth rate meets a turning point and population aging, this paper conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of housing price and population age structure on consumption structure through 31 provinces in urban of China using panel data during the period 2004—2013. The results suggest the structural differences in the effect of housing price fluctuation on consumption due to speculating behaviors in Chinese 25 real estate market. The youth dependency ratio has a negative impact on clothing consumption, while the old dependency ratio has a positive impact on the consumption of household facilities, health care and medical services. Therefore ，the paper put forward proposals to upgrade Chinese consumption structure. Key words: Consumption Structure; Population Age Structure; Housing Price; GMM Estimation 30 0 引言 2008 年国际金融危机后，疲弱的出口贸易和投资已经无法支撑我国经济的高速增长。 与此同时，2010-2014 年我国最终消费支出对GDP 的平均贡献率为53.08%，大大低于发达 国家（70% 以上），居民消费率自2000 年逐年下滑，2010-2014 年的居民消费率均值为36.99%， 35 同样显著低于发达国家和其他经济高速增长国家，这都表明国内消费有很大的提升空间，因