人口城市化促进居民消费的路径研究.docxVIP

人口城市化促进居民消费的路径研究 郭欣然 [摘 要] 作为衡量城市发展水平最直观的指标，人口城市化在居民消费水平的提升上起重要的推动作用，通过对河南省20XX-20XX年间各地级市的相关数据建立面板回归模型，从统计的角度验证了人口城市化发展与居民消费水平提升的正相关关系，探讨了人口城市化推动居民消费的路径，并发现在城乡之间，各个路径对居民消费的促进作用是有差异的。人口城市化主要是通过居民消费结构改变、城市化收入效应、居民消费心理和行为变化三种路径来促进居民消费水平提高，产业结构变化对居民消费无直接影响。通过城乡对比，发现相较于城镇居民，农村居民在消费结构改变和城市化收入效应这两个路径上，对居民消费水平的影响更加强烈。 [关键词] 人口城市化;居民消费水平;路径分析;城乡差距 [中图分类号] F590[文献标识码] A[文章编号] 1009-6043（2020）05-0021-07 Abstract： As the most intuitive indicator to measure the level of urban development， population urbanization plays an important role in promoting the consumption level of residents. Through the establishment of panel regression model for the relevant data of all prefecture level cities in Henan province from 20XX to 20XX， the positive correlation between population urbanization and the improvement of residents consumption level is verified from the statistical point of view， and the path of population urbanization to promote residents consumption was discussed. It also finds that between urban and rural areas， the promotion effect of various paths on residents consumption is different. The urbanization of population mainly promotes the improvement of residents consumption level through three ways： the change of residents consumption structure， the effect of urbanization income， the change of residents consumption psychology and behavior. The change of industrial structure has no direct impact on residents consumption. Through the comparison between urban and rural areas， it is found that compared with urban residents， rural residents have a stronger influence on Residents consumption level through two ways： the change of consumption structure and the effect of urbanization income. Key words： population urbanization， consumption level of residents， path analysis， the urban-rural gap 引言 人口城市化是衡量地区城市化水平的重要指标，其直接反应了一个地区农村人口向城市迁移的状况，对一个地区的经济发展有极其重要的推动作用。居民消费水平则直观地体现了人民的生活水平，是社会总消费最重要的组成部分，Junsen等认为制约内需的主要因素之一是城市化水平。[1]关于人口城市化与居民消费之间的关