1989-2018美赛建模论文2018年美赛o奖论文e78511-how will climate change a ect fragility.pdf

Foro ceuseonly TeamControlNumber Foro ceuseonly T1 78511 T1 T2 T2 ProblemChosen T3 T3 T4 E T4 2018 MCM/ICM HowWillClimateChangeAectFragility? People living in fragile states are more vulnerable to potential shocks. With the climate change exacerbating fragility, people gradually begin to focus on the importance of measuring and dealing with the fragility. In order to solve these problems,werstestablishanevaluationmodeltomeasurethefragilityunderclimate change.ThenitisappliedtoAfghanistanandEgypttoshowtheirfragilitysituation.At last, a set of optimal interventions are given and the model is modi ed in order to applytosmallerandbiggerstates. Tobeginwith,37inferiorfactors areconsideredintoourmodelandwe gure out thenormalization methodandmeasurement for eachinferior factor. After that,eight superiorindicators are summarizedfrom inferiorfactors ludefood, water,shelter, security, stability, economics, governance and demography. The analytic hier-archy process method is used to weigh these indicators. At last, the impacts of climate change are characterized by precipitation, arable land, temperature and natural disasters. Next,theevaluationmodelisappliedtoAfghanistanandEgypt.Afghanistanisinthe toptenfragilestateslistandEgyptisnotinthetoptenlist.Fragilityindicatorisusedto measurethefragility.Itisabenet-typeindicatornormalizedtotherangeof[0,1].Using thecollecteddata,wendthatwiththeclimatechange,thefragilityindicatoris0.280for Afghanistanand0.407forEgypt.Withouttheclimatechange,itis 0.310 for Afghanistan and 0.428 for Eg