空中交通管制员失误的影响因素研究.docVIP

PAGE 32 PAGE 32 PAGE 35 PAGE 35 空中交通管制员失误的影响因素研究 摘 要 随着我国民航的发展，空中交通管制面临着越来越大的压力，管制员工作负荷也在不断增大。因此，为了减少飞行事故，保证飞行安全，对管制员失误影响因素的研究至关重要。本文通过对大量统计数据及事故调查报告的分析，把管制员失误的影响因素归于四个方面：人、设备、环境和管理。在对影响因素进行分析时，运用层次分析法（AHP），通过专家调查问卷对各因素评估，层次分析法软件yaahp计算特征向量和值最大特征根，最终得出各因素权重。提出管制员失误的预测方法--管制员操作可靠性评价，可靠性评价通过层次分析法评估各因素的权重，随后提出评估的公式并针对不同可靠性等级提出建议。文章最后从影响管制员失误的四个方面分别提出了建议，希望减少管制员的失误，保证空中交通安全，防止不安全事件的发生。 关键词：空中交通管制员；层次分析法；权重；失误预测 Abstract Due to the development of civil aviation in China, air traffic management is facing increasing pressure and the workload of controllers is also increasing. Therefore, in order to reduce flight accidents and ensure flight safety, it is very important to study the influencing factors of controllers errors.Based on the analysis of a large number of statistical data and accident investigation reports, this paper classifies the influencing factors of controllers errors into four aspects: people, equipment, environment and management.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to analyze the factors, and each factor is evaluated by expert questionnaires. Analytic hierarchy process software yaahp calculates the eigenvector and the maximum eigenvalue.Finally,the weight of each factor is obtained.There is a method for predicting the controllers errors: operator reliability evaluation. The weight of each factor is evaluated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then the evaluation formula is proposed and suggestions are made for different reliability levels.Finally, the paper puts forward suggestions from four aspects which affect the controllers errors, hoping to reduce the controllers errors, ensure air traffic safety and prevent unsafe incidents. Keywords: Air Traffic Controller;AHP; Weight; Error prediction 目 录 TOC \t 标题_谢辞及参考文献,1,标题_附录,1,第2级标题,2,第3级标题,3,第1级标题,1 1 绪论 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 课题的目的和意义 1 1.3 国内外研究现状 2 1.4 本文研究内容及研究方法 3 2 空中交通管制员失误影响因素研究 4 2.1 管制员失误的影响因素 4 2.1.1 人的因素 4 2.1.2 设备因素 4 2.1.3 环境因素 5 2.1.4 管理因素 6 2.2 空管事故举例与分析 6 2.2.1 空管事故举例 6