某咨询—化学行业分析报告.pptx

EU enlargement – new opportunities for the chemical industryProf. Roland BergerChairman, Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsNoordwijk, October 4, 2004ContentsThe changing face of EuropeChallenges and opportunities of enlargement for EU 15Opportunities for EU 15 chemical players in CEE and CISConclusionA.The changing face of EuropePopulation [m]22778.0%50.0%GDP/capita [USD]28,6081.1France, Germany, Italy and Benelux: Six wealthy core countries start economic integration process in 1957EU 6 (1957)*% of US% of EU 25GDP [USD bn]6,49459.0%58.9%75.5%118.0%* 2003 data Europes core countries had sluggish growth over the last ten years: Average growth 1.3% p.a. in Germany, 1.7% in France, 2.5% NetherlandsPopulation [m]297102.0%65.0%GDP/capita [USD]29,1411.2Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom: First acces-sion round after 16 years increases economic powerEU 9 (1973)*% of US% of EU 25GDP [USD bn]8,65578.8%78.5%76.9%120.2%* 2003 data As a result of EU integration, Irelands economic growth has been out-standingly high over the past ten years: 7.6% p.a. (DK 2.1%, UK 2.8%)Population [m]308106.2%67.7%GDP/capita [USD]28,6591.3Greece: A poorer country joins the European Union in 1981 – first discussions about dilution EU 10 (1981)*% of US% of EU 25GDP [USD bn]8,82780.3%80.0%75.6%118.3%* 2003 data Greece now has high average growth rates (3.8% p.a. from 1995-2004) – partly due to European money from structural / regional funds Population [m]359123.0%78.9%GDP/capita [USD]27,3431.4Spain and Portugal: Accession of two less developed southern countries reduces EUs average wealthEU 12 (1986)*% of US% of EU 25GDP [USD bn]9,81689.3%89.0%72.2%112.8%* 2003 data Today, the southern countries contribute to EU growth: Spain (3.3% p.a. since 1995) and Portugal (2.4% p.a.) achieved high average growth ratesPopulation [m]381130.5%83.7%GDP/capita [USD]27,6481.5Sweden, Finland and Austria: Europes northern enlargement pushes up the average GDP per capitaEU 15 (1995)*% of US% of EU 25GDP [USD bn]10,